518 FXUS63 KIND 081145 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 645 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 308 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 Anti-cyclonic flow remains over the Upper Midwest, drifting west. Meanwhile an upper level shortwave was lifting north through the Tennessee valley with associated precipitation pushing into Southern Indiana, but this system is progged to pivot east towards the Middle Atlantic region later tonight and into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /Today through This Afternoon/... Issued at 308 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 Early this morning the stratus cloud shield is holding tough across the region, with the shortwave satellite imagery indicating some thickening to the shield along the Southeast portions of the forecast area and drifting west along the northern periphery of the shortwave lifting north. This was helping to provide added moisture through the favored dendritic growth zone, couple with some omega and helping to product some light snow. Fortunately the deformation axis was hanging around northern Kentucky and struggling to move further north due to the channel of relatively drier northeast air and elevated heights across Central Indiana. While expect we will be able to maintain a dry forecast, we have introduced a low chance for some light snow/flurries in the far southern forecast area, and any accumulations should be less than a few tenths of an inch. As eluded to earlier, drier air will linger further north with T/Td spreads in the 7-10 deg range. Profiles indicate that as the day progresses and heights rise, enough diffluence/drying will occur that should begin to erode the status deck by midday/afternoon providing some sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday/... Issued at 308 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 As the shortwave begins to pull further east away from the region, flow will begin to turn northerly with the surface ridge returning from the west. The concern is for some lingering clouds, albeit with some breaks, due to the lack of forcing and strong winds aloft. But with enough breaks expect temps tonight to still radiate into the 20s for much of the area. Then a near carbon copy for Saturday with a light northerly flow and just enough mid-level moisture to keep some clouds around and temps returning to the 30s. && .LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... Issued at 308 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 Ensembles in good agreement in indicating a split flow across the region through early next week, with the forecast area in between the northern and southern streams. This should result in dry conditions, and the ensembles back this up, suggesting little in the way of a precipitation threat for most of the period. By the middle of next week, ensembles indicate a short wave trough in the northern stream may amplify over the Midwest. At this time, the ensembles suggest any precipitation threat from this trough will hold off until after this period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 08/12Z TAF issuance/... Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Jan 8 2021 IMPACTS: -VFR/MVFR CIGS thru TAF period. -IFR possible at KIND tonight. DISCUSSION: Mainly MVFR CIGs thru duration for TAF sites and other airfields, with some partial improvement or clearing to the thick stratus cloud deck. Although this may only improve from an OVC to BKN deck this afternoon. There is some indication that CIGs could briefly thin to a SCT deck, but that may not occur until late afternoon and then back to BKN conds overnight. Winds will generally be between 10-14kts from the northeast turning north with an occasional gust to 20kts. CONFIDENCE: -High confidence in CIGs remaining MVFR thru duration of TAF period. -Medium confidence in possibly seeing a few IFR CIGs this morning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Beach NEAR TERM...Beach SHORT TERM...Beach LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...Beach