496 
FXUS63 KMPX 072319
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
519 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021

Visibilities have recovered in some areas early this afternoon. This 
trend will be short-lived, however, with widespread dense fog 
becoming an issue again after sunset. Sprawling high pressure from 
southeastern Canada through the Upper Midwest and central Plains 
won't move much into the weekend. Very weak flow throughout the 
atmosphere and a sharp inversion around 1.5kft will keep moisture 
trapped near the surface until further notice. Model guidance is 
optimistic with improving visibilities Friday afternoon, but 
extensive stratus will remain and fog could redevelop again Friday 
night. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect west of a line from Fairmont
to the Twin Cities metro through 11 AM Friday. Modestly drier air 
over WI and southeast MN should keep fog from becoming too dense in 
those areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021

Expect more of the same as we head into the weekend with weak flow 
aloft and surface high pressure leading to continued cloudiness and 
fog. The pattern next week does look to be more active aloft with the
potential for a few waves to move across the Upper Midwest. There 
remains ample spread between deterministic models and a wide envelope
of solutions in ensemble systems, so there is not yet confidence in 
much QPF next week. So the potential for precipitation returns next 
week, but there remains a lack of any consistent signal in guidance 
for a meaningful PoP at this point.

As the pattern begins to switch expect to see warming temperatures
over this period. Near the end of this period into the following 
week the trend seems to be moving towards a return to colder weather.
While there is a fair amount of spread within ensemble solutions 
these two trends remain clear. It should also be noted even the 
cooler parts of this forecast period look to remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST Thu Jan 7 2021

Widespread fog and low stratus will remain in place through much of
Friday, with the worst conditions still expected over western and
central MN. Modest improvement is possible over far eastern MN into
western WI late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, rising from IFR
into potentially barely MVFR conditions.

KMSP...IFR-or-worse expected throughout the period, with the worst
conditions expected overnight through the Friday morning push. Slight
improvement likely for the Friday evening push but IFR conditions
still likely.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat-Sun...IFR/MVFR expected, LIFR possible. Wind NW 5 kts or less.
Mon...VFR expected, MVFR possible. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Friday for 
     Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Hennepin-Le Sueur-Martin-
     Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Scott-Sibley-Watonwan.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Friday for Benton-Chippewa-
     Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-
     Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Renville-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-
     Swift-Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine.

WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...NDC
AVIATION...JPC