654 FXUS64 KBMX 070918 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 318 AM CST Thu Jan 7 2021 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0311 AM CST Thu Jan 07 2021/ Today through Friday. The leading edge of the main band of showers has moved into eastern Mississippi and will enter west Alabama around 5 am CST. All the thunderstorm activity has remained near the coastal areas overnight, and expect this trend will continue will little chance of thunderstorms developing inland. The rain band is not that wide, so rainfall duration will not be a long as expected, especially across the southern counties. Once the main rain band sweeps across south Alabama this morning, most of the remaining activity will be confined to areas across north Alabama, closer to the upper low center of circulation. Forecast rainfall totals also are coming in lower with the latest model runs, with amounts averaging one-quarter to one-half inch. Temperatures will not rise much during the day due to cloud cover, rain, and easterly wind flow. The upper low will exit east Alabama between 3am and 6 am Friday. This will bring an end to the more widespread showers, but plenty of wrap around moisture will keep a chance of light precipitation through Friday morning. With colder air advecting southeast into north Alabama Friday morning, there may be a mixture of rain/snow across areas north of I-20. Surface temperatures will be above freezing Friday morning, so no issues expected related to accumulations or road conditions. The precipitation should end by noon Friday, but low clouds will linger into the afternoon. 58/rose .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0311 AM CST Thu Jan 07 2021/ Friday night through Sunday. Look for dry conditions to move in Friday night and Saturday as high pressure begins to build into the area. We will have cold air advection during the day Saturday so look for cloudy skies and temperatures only working into the 40s and possibly low 50s in the far south. With clearing skies and winds relaxing, Sunday morning will be quite chilly with a significant freeze across the area. Areas in the north will flirt with the upper teens again. As we approach Sunday, eyes will focus to the south and west as the next approaching system will move near the coast. Sunday night through Wednesday. As we get into Sunday night, the exact path of the low pressure system will have everything to do with our weather. A further south low, off the coast will likely drag some colder air into the region and provide a good shot at wintry precipitation, as has been the talk over the past few days. A touch to the north, more inland will keep the area generally wet and limit the frozen precipitation to the far north, if not totally north of the area. The model trends tonight is toward the wetter and slightly warmer solution. Looking a critical thicknesses the Euro never really brings the best potential into the area at all, while the GFS brings the best chance for any frozen precipitation to the I-20 corridor. One thing to keep in mind is that both models have been trending wetter along with more precipitation, that usually indicates that the system will see more in the way of rain than snow/sleet. Keeping with the possibility of frozen precipitation and then fact that we are still 4 to 5 days out went with a wintry mix overnight/into Sunday morning for the west and north at the onset of the event. Too much in the uncertainty factor to eliminate anything at this point. I did add in the mention of sleet into the wintry precipitation given the over-running of the warm air advection and the onset of the precipitation. One other note is the confidence of the precipitation. It does appear that there is a better chance as we approach the time period so did increase PoPs a touch. Would expect the next few runs to see even higher chances, so be aware of that as well. The backside of the system moves out early evening Monday night. There is a potential for some wrap around snow, but right now it appears the precipitation works out before the thickness values can arrive. Dry conditions return Tuesday with cold air advection keeping temperatures in the 40s and low 50s and then another cold night Tuesday night Wednesday, before the slight warming trend develops. 16 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. TAFs are currently VFR with cirrus and light to near calm winds ahead of the arrival of our next low pressure system which is currently affecting LA. Conditions will deteriorate toward midday on Thursday as -SHRAs spread across C AL from the west. MVFR first and then IFR conditions toward the latter part of the afternoon. Some LIFR cigs are possible during the end of the period in the evening in conjunction with the activity. The chance for thunder is minimal and will not be mentioned. Winds will be noted generally from the east on Thursday with a few gusts possible. During Thursday evening a shift will occur as the low moves through. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system will bring rain across Central Alabama through tonight, with drier weather Friday into the weekend. A second system will work into the area Monday morning, with drier weather Tuesday. There are no concerns regarding fire weather variables over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 46 37 42 28 44 / 90 90 30 0 0 Anniston 48 39 45 30 46 / 90 90 20 0 0 Birmingham 48 39 44 31 44 / 90 80 20 0 0 Tuscaloosa 49 40 45 30 45 / 90 70 10 0 0 Calera 48 39 44 30 44 / 90 80 10 0 0 Auburn 48 41 46 32 47 / 90 70 10 0 0 Montgomery 52 43 49 32 48 / 90 50 0 0 0 Troy 54 44 49 33 48 / 90 30 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$