235 FXUS61 KBTV 070518 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1218 AM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure nearly stationary off the New England coast this afternoon will continue to provide the forecast area with abundant clouds and patchy light precipitation through Friday as it slowly drifts north into the Canadian maritime provinces. Building high pressure will bring dry and sunnier conditions for the weekend and into early next week with no significant precipitation on the horizon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1210 AM EST Thursday...After a break in cloud cover across the Champlain Valley, the latest satellite data supports low clouds moving back into the region. With Froude numbers remaining strongly blocked, it's likely this cloud cover continues through the overnight hours and throughout the day. Minor tweaks to temperatures have been made to account for the period of clear skies across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys but thick cloud cover moving in should limit much additional radiational cooling. Otherwise, forecast remains in great shape. Previous discussion...Generally offering a persistence forecast as the Northeast continues to be dominated by low pressure centered near the benchmark this afternoon. Little airmass change is expected over the next 36 hours as the low slowly drifts northward into the Canadian maritimes and continues to provide abundant low level moisture on northerly flow. Convergent flow this morning in the Champlain Valley resulted in a period of light lake effect snow on the eastern side of Lake Champlain, and this afternoons water vapor imagery shows more spokes of moisture will pivot into the region overnight into Thursday. Some light echos already noted across northern Vermont this afternoon, and with soundings showing little moisture in the DGZ, this precipitation will likely fall as freezing drizzle, very fine snow or a mix. Little to no snow or ice accumulation is expected, but a light glaze on untreated surfaces can't be ruled out. Low level moisture does look to decrease in coverage late Thursday into Thursday night especially in the central/southern valleys where skies will break up, but across the north clouds will hang tough under severely blocked flow, especially on the VT side of the Champlain Valley, the western side of the northern Adirondacks and into the St. Lawrence Valley. Temps through the period remain steady with lows in the teens to lower 20s, and highs tomorrow in the mid/upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 244 PM EST Wednesday...A sharp thermal inversion persists on Friday with moisture trapped below 800mb. This will once again result in plenty of clouds and pockets of very light flurries or freezing drizzle, especially eastern side of the CPV with highly blocked flow. Soundings support the idea of moisture maybe shallow enough for the summits to breakout once again during the afternoon hours, along with some areas acrs the western cpv and downslope regions of the CT River Valley. Temps are tricky with coolest values in the valleys associated with 925mb temps in the -10c to -12c range, while progged 850mb temps are btwn -1c and -3c. Some slight changes occur on Saturday with drier air developing and slightly stronger llvl caa on north/northwest 850mb flow of 25 to 30 knots. Will this be enough mixing and change to erode some of the clouds, is yet to be determined. Some additional flurries are possible along the favorable upslope regions of the northern dacks and western slopes of the green mtns. Temps both days range from mid 20s to lower 30s, while lows hold in the 10F to 20F range. However, if more clearing develops on Friday Night, temps will be much cooler than forecasted. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 244 PM EST Wednesday...No large scale systems expected in the long term with below normal precip and at or above normal temps anticipated. Synoptic scale pattern will feature a split flow acrs the conus, while the ne section is dominated by northern polar jet. This split flow idea will limit phasing of energy aloft, while keeping deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture suppressed to our south. Some weak northern stream energy with limited available moisture may produce a few light snow showers on Monday/Tues and again late Weds/Thurs. Temps are generally normal for Sat Night into early next week, but trend back above normal by Tues into the mid of next week. Highest pops will be confined to northern NY and mountains of VT with schc/chc (15 to 30%) will be placed. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...After a period of VFR sky conditions this evening across several terminals, sites are beginning to trend back down to MVFR ceilings as low clouds move back in from the east. With strong blocking in place, MVFR to low VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Localized IFR conditions at KSLK will continue through about 12Z-15Z before conditions slightly improve from 800 ft to 1200 ft. As has been common over the past two days, a slight chance of a few flurries and possibly even some very light freezing drizzle will be possible through 12Z this morning. No accumulations or impacts to the terminals are expected with this very light precipitation. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Slight chance FZDZ. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Clay