351 FXUS62 KFFC 062008 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 308 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/... Upper-level ridging will continue over the Southeast through Wednesday Night, with surface high pressure remaining in place through that time in the forecast area. This weather setup will support somewhat seasonal temperatures with increasing upper-level cloud cover. By Thursday morning, an upper-level cutoff low pressure system will be sweeping through the ArkLaTex region and begin moving through the Southeastern CONUS. At the surface and associated low pressure system will push into the southern CWA and being occluding and thus slowing down with a warm front draped to the east with warm moist air being advected over the front. By the afternoon, high resolution models are in good agreement with bringing the initial wave of showers through the area. With PWATs between half and inch to one inch, rainfall is not expected to be heavy but should be widespread. As we get into the early evening, we should begin to see a transition from rain to a rain/snow mix beginning in the higher elevations. By Thursday evening, warm air advecting over the warm front will change the atmospheric profiles for a brief period of time, roughly between 00-08 UTC, with a warm nose becoming warmer with time as surface temps cool. This could support short periods of freezing rain above 2500ft with some light accumulations possible only along the highest ridgeline elevations. Between 06-09 UTC, the upper-level low pressure system and lowered thicknesses and cooler mid-level temps will begin moving into North Georgia. This arrival will begin a more widespread transition to snow showers, or at least a mix of rain and snow showers, for much of north Georgia even though temperatures are expected to remain above freezing for all areas outside the North Georgia mountains. We'll likely see a more widespread snow showers Friday morning as the system exits the area but with temperatures mostly in the mid 30s only small accumulations are expected outside the higher elevations before highs climb into the mid 40s Friday afternoon. In the higher elevations, snow totals between a quarter of an inch to an inch and a half could occur with over 2 inches possible at the highest elevations. We remain just outside the Winter Weather Advisory time period, but one will likely be issued tonight or tomorrow for areas around the NE GA mountains. Thiem .LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... Primary focus in the extended forecast period continues to be the system early next week. Medium-range models continue to show ample run-to-run variability and little agreement among the models. Pattern remains fairly noisy and although the upper pattern is not as divergent between the different models, the surface pattern remains quite different. All-in-all, I have stuck with a model blend considering the continuing variability. This keeps PoPs fairly low for now as overall confidence remains low. Time frame is currently centered on the Monday daytime hours through Monday night period for the best timing. The rest of the extended forecast period looks dry and seasonal. 20 && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with SCT/BKN250, no VSBY/CIG concerns and no Pops until the end of the TAF period for CSG/ATL. Winds will be calm to light out of the E to SE today and tonight, and pick up out of the E tomorrow around 10g15kts. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High on all elements. Thiem && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 34 50 35 45 / 0 60 90 60 Atlanta 36 48 37 45 / 0 80 80 40 Blairsville 32 44 33 41 / 0 60 90 70 Cartersville 36 48 35 45 / 0 80 80 50 Columbus 40 52 43 50 / 0 90 80 20 Gainesville 34 47 35 45 / 0 70 90 60 Macon 37 55 42 50 / 0 90 90 30 Rome 33 48 36 46 / 0 80 80 50 Peachtree City 36 49 38 46 / 0 80 80 40 Vidalia 36 58 46 53 / 0 70 90 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thiem LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...Thiem