102 FXUS64 KAMA 060948 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 348 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 .SHORT TERM... The left exit region of the upper level jet will combine with increasing low to mid level moisture to bring the possibility of some very light rain or snow showers to the southwest and south central Texas Panhandle this morning. The lowest levels of the atmosphere will still be somewhat dry, so it may take a little time to moisten up the column enough to get precipitation to reach the ground. At any rate, no accumulation of snow is expected. By mid day, the jet moves off to our east and the chance of rain or snow will diminish. One thing that will not diminish is the wind. A north wind at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph will be common through today behind a deepening upper level trough moving into north Texas. Winds will then diminish pretty quickly after sunset tonight. Winds will be much lighter on Thursday as they try to swing around more to the east. Highs today and Thursday are expected to be around normal for this time of year. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across all of the Panhandles except the far eastern Texas Panhandle. Wind driven RFTI's will be in the 2 to 3 range, with an isolated brief 4 possible. North winds at 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts will be common with little change in the wind direction all day. The winds will decrease quickly after sunset. && .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday... A cold front moving through the Panhandles through the day on Friday ushering in another bout of colder temperatures. High temperatures on Friday will range from the mid to upper 40s with upper 30s to mid 40s for high temperatures on Saturday. Clouds will increase first half of the weekend ahead of our next weather system but will remain dry. Latest 06/00Z model and numerical data is showing some accord as a rather potent H500 positive tilted trough ejects southeast out of the central Rockies Saturday night. As the main trough axis continues to move southeast into west Texas by Sunday morning, a quick burst of snow is possible across much of the Panhandles. Since the previous data model runs, trends continue to shift further west with the heavier precipitation. ECMWF/CMC are the furthest west with a closed off H500 low developing over southern New Mexico by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, GFS and some hi-res blend model data trickling in does show the closed H500 low moving slower and further east with a closed low setting up NW of Lubbock by early Sunday morning, which will result in better chance of precipitation across the region. Overall latest model guidance as a whole when dissecting the vertical profile does show the best overall vertical growth in the column shifting west as a whole. This is due to the main 1.5 PVU being displaced further west with large scale dynamics slightly weaker which results in the shift closer to the main source of the H250 lift across central NM. Still expecting light snowfall across the Panhandles. Highest chance of accumulating snowfall will be across the western Panhandles closer to the main UL trough which could extend as far east as the central Panhandles with just light snow showers east of there. Precipitation at this time will start as mix late Saturday night quickly changing to snow and coming to and end mid to late Sunday morning. Temperatures will be slow to recover on Sunday with prolonged H850-700 CAA over the Panhandles having high temperatures struggle to get above 40 degrees in most locations. Dry conditions return by Sunday night under NW H500 flow and surface westerly flow will slowly moderate temperatures. High temperatures on Monday will be slightly below average and Tuesday will be near average. Meccariello && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 49 22 49 23 46 / 20 0 0 0 5 Beaver OK 49 22 45 24 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 47 19 46 21 46 / 0 0 0 0 5 Borger TX 52 24 50 26 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 53 20 51 21 48 / 10 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 51 21 51 22 46 / 30 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 49 27 49 27 46 / 5 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 49 17 48 19 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 50 20 46 22 47 / 5 0 0 0 5 Hereford TX 52 20 53 20 48 / 20 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 49 25 46 25 47 / 10 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 49 23 47 24 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 50 27 49 27 48 / 10 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 52 28 50 27 47 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 15/29