153 FXUS64 KLUB 060908 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 308 AM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 .SHORT TERM... A sharpening upper level short wave trough moving over southeastern Colorado early this morning will track southeastward, crossing the Texas Panhandle during the daylight hours today. The low is unlocking the next cold front that is sweeping southward down the southern High Plains. Cooler temperatures behind the front will still only be enough to drop highs to right at average for the date. Lift and mid-level mid level moisture associated with the upper trough will try to generate some light precipitation across the northern zones, but dry sub-cloud conditions should limit that to sprinkles or flurries, if even that. High pressure building in behind the front will generate windy conditions, although likely remaining below advisory criteria. A period of elevated fire weather conditions is expected this afternoon, mainly west of the I-27 corridor where relative humidity will drop the lowest; however, this period may be fairly brief (on the order of an hour or two) as lowest humidity and strongest winds may end up temporally offset. .LONG TERM... Northwesterly flow will be in place overhead tomorrow as upper ridging extends from near the Four Corners region to southcentral Canada and the upper low remains to our east. The upper ridging is expected to move overhead by late tomorrow night but in a much weaker form. A shortwave trough moving southeastward across the Inner Mountain West will erode much of the upper ridge before it reaches the FA. The upper shortwave will also dissipate before reaching the FA resulting in northwesterly flow remaining overhead through early Saturday. Surface flow will start out of the north tomorrow morning and then become east to northeasterly by tomorrow evening as the upper low pushes further to our east. This will keep temps on the cool side with highs only reaching into the mid/upper 40s by Friday. Another upper level disturbance will move into the Pacific Northwest by early Friday afternoon and end up over New Mexico by Saturday Night/early Sunday morning. Models differ somewhat in the evolution of the disturbance. The ECMWF has deepened the upper trough as it moves over New Mexico and develops a closed by Saturday evening. This closed low moves over the Permian Basin by early Sunday morning at which time it becomes an open wave once again. The GFS keeps the trough as a not-as-amplified and more progressive open wave that makes its way to east Texas by 00Z Monday, 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. Both models provide precip over the region with this system with the ECMWF being more generous as it has the system moving slower. Currently precip mode does not appear to be an issue with this next system (given precip does occur) with precip falling as either rain or snow. The main factor will be surface temp as 850H-700H temps are well below freezing by the time precip occurs. This upper level system is where model consensus becomes no more. The GFS has a few upper troughs that push through the central CONUS early next week. The ECMWF brings a dry upper low southward from central Canada early next week and deepens it over the central CONUS. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 07/51