152 FXUS63 KEAX 042050 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 250 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 .Discussion... Issued at 250 PM CST MON JAN 4 2021 Message of the Day: Quiet weather is expected today or tomorrow. Some patchy dense fog is expected tomorrow morning, mainly in central MO, but it should not be as widespread like we have seen the past two days. Precipitation moves back in Wednesday and Thursday. Light rain is expected initially, with a changeover to light snow Wednesday night. A dusting of snow is possible. The fog and visibility have improved greatly today, with fog really only being observed east of HWY 65 this afternoon. Conditions should continue to improve in this area as well thanks to a trough and cold front moving through. Not only have they helped clear things out they increased winds between 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph and shifted them to the northwest. Tonight, high pressure will move through the region, shifting winds back to the west and then the south for tomorrow. The high will help keep skies mostly clear tonight and winds light, resulting in some fog development once again. Some areas of dense fog are likely, mainly in central MO. Elsewhere, more patchy fog is expected. The surface high pressure will slide east Tuesday, shifting winds back to the south. This will help temperatures rise into the upper 30s and 40s, with some in our southwest approaching 50 degrees. In other words, Tuesday looks like the warmest day of the week. Then a trough and surface low will head toward the area from the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday, deepening as it moves through the Plains. This will bring us our next chance for precipitation. It continues to look like rain will develop across much of the area throughout the day Wednesday, eventually transition to snow Wednesday night. Moisture will be limited, so precip is expected to be light. As for snow accumulations, a dusting is possible. While models have continued to converge on a solution, the ECMWF continues to have a track that is further south, which would mean those in our northern areas would miss out on most of the precipitation. However, the NAM and GFS depict precipitation chances for everyone. No matter what solution you look at, precipitation moves out of our area Thursday morning. High pressure and upper level ridging will then move over the region for most of the weekend, keeping things quiet for our area with near normal temperatures. An upper level low will move through the region Sunday, but right now it looks to stay south of us, meaning we don't expect to see any precipitation at this time. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1118 AM CST MON JAN 4 2021 A trough and surface cold front have moved into our western counties, helping clear out the fog and clouds. As this boundary moves east it will continue clearing out the fog and clouds, though it will take some time for it to make it to central MO. Winds will also shift to the northwest behind the front, but high pressure will move in tonight, shifting winds back to the west and then south by tomorrow morning. The high pressure will keep skies mostly clear tonight, which will help fog develop again tomorrow morning. Lowest visibilities will be east of I-35, with some patchy fog possible along the MO/KS border. Dense fog is not anticipated at this time. Fog and visibility will improve through the morning, with the rest of tomorrow being partly clear skies. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Atkins Aviation...Atkins