176 
FXUS64 KLCH 041754
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1154 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...
04/18Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail with some SCT CU acrs the area this
aftn. SW winds will become westerly ahead of a weak cold front
this aftn. The front will cross the area this evening, with winds
gradually veering northeasterly through Tuesday morning. Skies 
should become clear this evening, and while the combination of 
clear skies and light winds could promote development of some 
patchy fog, any that forms should be short-lived before drier air
in the wake of the front helps to scour out low level moisture. 

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
Sfc obs have shown that fog is more of an issue than previously
thought through the bulk of the night with visibilities
occasionally down as low as 1/2SM - have introduced to the srn
terminals for the first couple of hours of the period to account.
Thereafter, minimal problems are expected with VFR conditions
developing and winds remaining mostly light and veering with the
approach of our next weak sfc boundary.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Still looks dry across the area for the next couple of days with a
re-enforcing dry front moving through the area this evening. The
next significant weather maker still looks to be Wednesday into
Wednesday night with a more significant front. This front and
associated precipitation looks to be progressive and thus limiting
rainfall amounts. 

The remainder of the week into the weekend looks to be dry with
the next system progged for the late weekend into early next week.
Significant differences are noted in the guidance with how this
system will evolve with the CMC and ECMWF still taking a more
southern route with a chance for wintry precipitation. The GFS 
has shifted to the north with this cycle. At this time opted for a
cold rain in the forecast, but stay tuned for possible changes as
more information becomes available. 

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  36  62  40 /   0   0   0   0 
LCH  70  42  65  45 /   0   0   0   0 
LFT  70  44  66  43 /   0   0   0   0 
BPT  71  44  65  49 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...24