581 
FXUS64 KLUB 032328
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
528 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021

.AVIATION...
Fine flying weather through 05/00Z. Winds will veer to NNE and 
increase some around 12Z/04...but in general will remain 10kts or
less. Will maintain one line VFR TAFs this cycle. JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021/ 

SHORT TERM...
We are in the midst of a fine early January day with sunny skies, 
light winds and 19Z temperatures mostly in the middle and upper 50s. 
Dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the short term 
with only passing high clouds this evening. A shortwave trough 
tracking from the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest will 
provide a cold front early Monday. Other than bringing a period of 
breezy northeasterly winds, peaking around midday, the front will 
have little else to offer. Tonight's lows will reside near or 
slightly above average while highs tomorrow rebound back into the 
upper 50s and lower 60s.

LONG TERM...
Mondays short wave ridge will slowly shift east Tuesday as the first 
in a series of troughs begins moves towards the area. Although the 
main impacts from this system will remain north of the area ahead of 
the trough passage backing south-southwesterly surface winds and lee-
side surface troughing will advect warmer air into the CWA. In 
response high temperatures of nearly 10 degrees above normal are 
expected Tuesday. 

The upper trough axis will be over the South Plains by Wednesday 
morning pushing the associated cold front through the area and 
bringing temperatures back down closer to normal. Increased pressure 
gradients aloft and at the surface means winds will become breezy 
Wednesday morning. Behind the exiting trough ridging slowly builds 
Thursday through Saturday with a stagnate surface high over the 
region keeping temperatures on the cooler side. 

Sunday as our next upper level trough begins to impact the area with 
the strengthen of the trough as it moves across New Mexico and drops 
the main energy of the trough SW of the CWA Sunday morning. This 
scenario suggests cooler weather with a chance of showers for much 
of the area. Model differences sneak in when it comes to the track 
and evolution of this low. For now Blended PoPs have been accepted 
with most areas receiving a slight chance of precipitation Sunday 
evening into early Monday. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/13