145 FXUS63 KABR 022354 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 554 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 543 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 342 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 A couple of minor challenges to be monitored in the short range forecast period, but overall conditions look fairly quiet the next couple days. A sfc trough remains spread from the north to south across the central and western Dakotas this afternoon. It's pretty much just acting as a wind shift line with south to southwest winds ahead of it and west to northwest winds behind it. We've seen a downsloping wind event at times today in a couple of the more prone areas of the eastern slopes of the Sisseton Hills. Some patchy blowing snow occurred with the stronger winds through the morning, but has since dissipated mostly thanks to temps above freezing this afternoon. Will continue to see gusty winds along these eastern ridge lines into the evening and early overnight hours with perhaps some patchy blowing snow occurring but probably not impactful enough to become hazardous. Anticipate some patchy fog to develop overnight in some areas, especially in the James valley and perhaps portions of the Big Sioux valley. It doesn't look it will be as widespread as it was overnight last night and early this morning however. Temperatures overnight as expected to fall back into the teens to around 20 degrees. Coolest readings will be over eastern zones. Sunday's highs will be warmer west once again with readings in the 40s. High temps east will likely stay in the 30s. An upper trough will approach the region on Sunday and push a sfc cold front into the forecast area by tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. There's not much moisture associated with this system. But, there will be perhaps just enough to generate some flurries or brief light snow showers late tomorrow night across northeast SD and west central MN. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 342 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 Temperatures look to stay above normal through the time period, with highs generally in the 30s. Although, some 40s will be had across the western CWA on Monday and Tuesday. These mild temps will promote some additional snow melt through the extended period which will begin dwindling whatever resident snow cover there is. As for precipitation, the only time period to hone in on would be Tuesday into Wednesday as a system slides east across the region. Seeing quite a bit of spread amongst the members in regards to QPF placement and just how much. Given the thermal profiles on Tuesday, there is potential for precip to be in liquid form. POPs remain fairly low at this point given the uncertainty. Will watch model trends and adjust POPs accordingly. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 543 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at the KPIR and KMBG TAF sites throughout the TAF valid period. Late tonight and during the daytime hours on Sunday, KABR and KATY may experience some sub-VFR patchy fog or low clouds. KPIR and KMBG may experience several hours tonight with a light north-northwesterly wind, but overall, light south to southwest winds are forecast to prevail through the TAF valid period at all four terminals. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...Vipond LONG TERM...TMT AVIATION...Dorn