285 FXUS64 KMOB 021827 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1227 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 .NEAR TERM UPDATE...A southwesterly flow pattern aloft continues across our forecast area between an upper level low that is moving across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas and an upper level ridge of high pressure that is located across the vicinity of Cuba, the Bahamas, and the adjacent western Atlantic. A stationary frontal boundary extends northeastward from the central Gulf of Mexico through the Florida Big Bend and southeastern Georgia late this morning. Ascent associated with a series of shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft atop the stationary frontal boundary has resulted in scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms from the central Gulf through portions of northwest Florida and southern Georgia this morning, but the bulk of this convection remains oriented to the south and east of our forecast area. The axis of deepest moisture and ascent should generally remain aligned in its current location through the course of the afternoon, but far eastern and southeastern portions of our CWA will be on the northwestern fringe of the moisture and lift. Radar imagery already shows a band of showers over the Gulf clipping into the vicinity of Fort Walton Beach and Destin as of this writing, and additional showers could develop into portions of the western Florida panhandle and adjacent south central Alabama into the afternoon. We have trimmed back POPs just a bit from the previous forecast. We did maintain a good chance of rain (50-60%) generally across southern portions of Okaloosa county Florida, with lower POPs extending as far northwest as a Gulf Shores to Luverne, AL line. The rest of our forecast area is expected to remain dry underneath partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures this afternoon will be dependent on the amount of cloud cover. Some areas have remained underneath broken-overcast mid level cloud decks through the morning, though a few breaks are now noted on satellite imagery. Highs still look on track to reach the upper 50s to around 60 degrees across southeast Mississippi and adjacent southwest Alabama, and a little warmer in the lower to mid 60s across the rest of south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle this afternoon. Lifeguard partners from Orange Beach and Pensacola Beach are reporting moderate to strong rip currents and elevated surf between 2 and 4 feet this morning. 3-4 ft southerly swell with periods of 7-8 seconds will contribute to a HIGH rip current risk through tonight. /21 && .AVIATION... 18Z issuance...VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the forecast period. Broken-overcast mid level cloud decks between 5-10 kft AGL will impact a good portion of the region through this afternoon. These mid level decks are expected to decrease by early this evening. A few low clouds between 800-1500 ft AGL cannot be ruled out later this evening into early Sunday morning, especially over interior southeast MS and southwest AL where a brief period of MVFR to localized IFR ceilings may be possible during this time frame. We will continue to monitor. Winds become west to northwest 5-10 knots this afternoon, becoming more northerly by early Sunday morning as high pressure builds into the region. /21 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob