911 FXUS65 KABQ 021747 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1047 AM MST Sat Jan 2 2021 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. A surface low pressure system over northeast NM will induce westerly wind gusts from 35-45 kt across east central areas this afternoon. These winds will trend gradually weaker after sunset. Sheets of high clouds will cross from the west this afternoon, then again on Sunday. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...225 AM MST Sat Jan 2 2021... .SYNOPSIS... A warming trend will continue through Tuesday with above normal temperatures expected area wide for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will then cool Wednesday and stay near normal for the remainder of the work week. Unfortunately, precipitation chances are minimal for the next seven days. Winds will ramp up today, particularly along and south of Interstate 40 across eastern NM. These same areas will be breezy to windy on Sunday as well. After a break on Monday, the winds will ramp up once again on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... Yesterday's weak disturbance is departing NM while another weak trough is dropping southeast across NM this morning, with no impacts other than some breezy to windy conditions. The strongest winds will be across the east central highlands where a wind advisor will be issued. Highs today will change little from yesterday in the west, which means below normal temperatures. The east though will be milder with highs above normal. Another weak trough aloft will drop southeast into NM tonight again with little impact other than a wind shift from the north across the eastern plains. It will be another breezy to windy day across the east with temperatures a little higher than today. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... A broad ridge will translate over NM Sunday night through Monday. Increasing heights should result in above normal temperatures area wide on Monday. On Tuesday, westerly flow aloft will increase as the next shortwave trough approaches and crosses CO and northern NM. GFS has come closer in line with the ECMWF, tracking the trough further north, with the base of the trough sliding over NM. Some of the 40-50kt momentum at 700 mb should be able to mix down to the surface. Bumped up wind speeds a bit for Tuesday, but it's likely they will need to be increased further. Downsloping across eastern NM should really allow temperatures to soar. most areas should be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Precipitation chances look bleak with this system, especially now that it looks like it will remain north of NM. Perhaps far north or northeast NM may see a few flakes Tuesday night, but it doesn't appear that it will be anything to write home about. The storm system looks to strengthen as it moves into the Great Plains, which will mean continued strong northerly flow into Wednesday. The attendant cold fronts will also drop temps areawide for Wednesday as well, though most areas will remain near normal. Ridging looks to build back in for Thursday, then another storm system may be in the offing for Friday, but models are struggling with the timing and placement of the system. CHJ/34 && .FIRE WEATHER... A couple of weak disturbances aloft will have little impact on our weather this weekend. Winds and temperatures will be on the rise today, with similar conditions Sunday. Very dry air in place will combine with the wind to create brief critical fire weather conditions across the far southern portion of the East Central Plains. Any critical fire weather concerns Sunday would be over the extreme southwest corner of the East Central Plains. No Red Flag Warnings will be issued with only small and brief critical conditions both days. Weak ridging Monday will drop wind speeds and raise temperatures some more. A stronger short wave trough will cross NM Tuesday into Tuesday night with gusty winds, cooler temperatures especially in the east, and a few snow showers over the North Central Mountains. A ridge of high pressure returns Wednesday into Thursday with less wind. A cool Wednesday will give to a milder Thursday with highs mostly above normal. Models vary widely on the potential for a storm system Friday into the weekend. Impacts look to be snow showers over the northern mountains and northeast, cooler temperatures everywhere and breeziness. CHJ && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for the following zones... NMZ223-233. && $$