111 FXUS61 KBGM 021433 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 933 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A wintry mix will change over to rain early this morning as warmer air works in. A few rain and snow showers will linger in central NY into early afternoon. Dry weather briefly returns tonight, then another storm will bring more snow on Sunday and Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 930 am update... A few sprinkles, and perhaps some light rain/snow showers, are passing through the area this morning, but precipitation will continue to wind down into the late morning, finally coming to an end in northern Oneida county into the afternoon. Temperatures are rising well above freezing, increasing into the upper 30s across most of the area apart from the higher elevations that still hover in the lower to mid 30s. Thus, will allow the winter weather advisory to expire. Otherwise, slight adjustments have been made to our precipitation chances to include a chance for some sprinkles more towards the Twin Tiers, and temperatures for the next several hours have been adjusted downward to account for a slightly lower-than-expected values. 330 am update... Stacked low pressure over western NY will continue moving ENE dragging a front through the area this morning. The front has some showers with it but drier air behind it for most our our area. The steadiest precipitation is across the Finger Lakes into the western Mohawk Valley which will continue through most of the morning. Surface temperatures have risen above freezing for the valleys along and west of I81. Some of the higher terrain is still at freezing in that area. Further east more temperatures at or below freezing. Oneida County will be the last to rise above freezing towards 8 am. At that point temperatures aloft will be back below freezing so precipitation type will be rain and snow showers. By that time amounts will be light. Showers don't end in Oneida until early afternoon. Not looking at much ice or snow accumulation from this time on except maybe a tenth of an inch of ice in Oneida County. Breezy west winds will mix the low levels today pushing temperatures into the 40s in the south and around 40 in CNY. Clouds will be slow to clear starting in the south this afternoon. High pressure moves into the area this evening with warmer air. Temperatures only fall into the 20s. Sunday we are dealing with another winter storm with mostly snow. Snow amounts look to be enough for an advisory for NEPA and the Catskills. The speed of this storm will mean lower qpf and snowfall. Another stacked low will move northeast up the Ohio Valley late tonight and Sunday morning through our area Sunday night. Precipitation ahead of this storm will move into the area late Sunday morning in the west and afternoon in the east. With the closed low temperatures aloft are cold enough for mostly snow except maybe right at the onset for NEPA and Sullivan county NY. Low level temperatures above freezing in the valleys will allow some rain to mix with the snow, and cut snow accumulations. Models not agreeing on snow amounts and exact track. Given this is third/fourth period and currently have advisories out will let later shifts solidify snow amounts and possible advisory for then. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 320 AM Update... Main feature in this portion of the forecast will be the departing coastal low Sunday night. Guidance has slowed down just a bit with the 0Z suite and although precip will likely exit by 6Z Monday, additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible across the Poconos Region and into the Eastern Catskills. We will likely be right on the edge of the best frontogenical forcing, so if the track of the system pulls a bit further north and west, then amounts could be higher. Snow should be out of the region by 12Z Monday, with models in pretty good agreement that the low will be somewhere SE of Cape Cod by that point. Quieter weather expected for Monday, but there may be some lake response that develops by Monday afternoon. However, the air coming in is not terribly cold, with T850 only around -5C by late in the day Monday, but it should be enough for some lake enhancement and a few scattered snow showers generally east of the lakes with the flow coming from the west-northwest. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 325 AM Update... Lake effect snow showers will be possible through the day Tuesday and may persist right into Wednesday depending on how fast high pressure builds in from the west. The remainder of the week looks quiet with high pressure expected through Friday. . Temperatures will be seasonable with mid 30s for highs through the middle of the week and upper 20s to low 30s for the remainder of the week. . && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 625 am update... Precipitation only remains for ITH/SYR/RME. Taf sites have risen above freezing so for now this is rain. Late morning some snow could mix with the rain at SYR/RME causing vsby restrictions. Low level wind shear is here with a 40 kt low level jet out of the west until 14z when the surface front passes. South winds at 5 to 10 kts will shift to the west and northwest behind the surface front around 14z. Winds increase then to 10 kts with gusts to 20. This evening winds become light and variable or calm. Fuel alternate MVFR will continue into afternoon at all sites. AVP has IFR cigs/vsbys until 14 or 15z. BGM will remain IFR today. ITH/SYR/RME should also fall to IFR cigs with the front this morning. Cigs will slowly improve this afternoon and tonight so that by 12z Sunday cigs will be high end MVFR or VFR. Outlook... Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in rain and snow showers. Likely restrictions for BGM/AVP. Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ009-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...HLC/TAC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...TAC