402 FXUS62 KMHX 021230 CCA AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 730 AM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A front stalled off our coast today will lift across the area as a warm front this evening. The next cold front will cross the area Sunday. High pressure will gradually build over the area from the west Monday through mid week. The high will shift off the coast Thursday night as a low pressure system approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As 700 AM Sat...The latest analysis is showing the center of the low pressure system over NY state with its associated cold front extending into the border of TN/NC, meanwhile closer to the ENC-- the warm front that lifted as early this morning, is now becoming a cold front over the Piedmont region of NC. The aforementioned cold front over the Piedmont region has pushed the main band of showers mostly offshore this morning. Models continue to show mid-level subsidence to work its way into ENC as the cold front pushes through late morning. Also, models are showing showers redeveloping across the southern half as the boundary moves southward. Temperatures will be above normal with highs in the upper 60s/ low 70s to occur late morning/early afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 315 AM Sat... A low pressure system will be developing along the frontal boundary driven by a cutoff upper low over the Midwest region. Coupled with a deep moisture feed and AOA 110 knot jet approaching from the southwest with eastern NC nicely in the left exit region, providing a good source of lift as moisture transport increases and PW values AOA 1.6 inches. This will result in a heavy rain for the overnight hours with rainfall amounts from half an inch to slightly over an inch. With already saturated soils, its possible for minor flooding across area with poor drainage. Expect overnight lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 AM Sat...Warm but unsettled conditions continue Sunday. A period of dry and cooler, yet seasonable weather is then expected most of the upcoming week. A complex low pressure system is expected to impact the area Friday and Friday night. Sunday...Active weather continues for the first part of Sunday, with locally heavy rain still the main concern. Warm front will continue to lift north through the area Sunday morning as sfc low pushes through ENC. At the same time a 110 kt jet approaches from the southwest with ENC nicely in the left exit region, providing a good source of lift as moisture transport increases and PW values peaking around 1.5". Widespread showers expected Sunday morning, gradually shifting eastward through afternoon. Organized severe storms not expected, but given the shear and some weak instability could see a few tstms Sunday morning. Main concern still the locally heavy rainfall potential. Increased pops for the first part of Sunday, with rapid drying expected by early afternoon. Temps are tricky for Sunday with potential for large temp gradient (10-15 deg) across the forecast area. Cooler deep inland with highs in the 50s to maybe low 60s, while along the coast expect temps to warm into the mid 60s to 70 deg. Monday through Thursday...The models continue to signal a prolonged period of mostly dry and cooler conditions through the period with surface high building in from the west and predominant NW flow. Strong shortwave will move through Tue and Tuesday night, and models are trending a bit wetter with this system. May have enough moisture to squeak out a few showers, but will keep forecast mostly dry at this time. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the 50s each day and lows in the 30s. Friday and Saturday...High pressure will shift off the coast Thursday night as deepening low pressure system moves through out of the central Mid-West into the SE US. Complex low is forecast to move through the Carolinas Friday night and early Sat. Increased pops a bit Friday and Friday night. May see locally heavy rain and a tstm threat develop depending on how this system evolves. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday/... As of 7 AM Sat...The TAF forecast remains a little tricky as most of our TAF sites are btw LIFT to MVFR. Most of the guidance continues to be pessimistic compared what exactly have happened. Therefore, used a mix of guidance with HREF resulting to LIFR/IFR conditions through 15z, then becoming MVFR. Some guidance is indicating possible VFR conditions for KPGV as dry air filters in this afternoon. Another low pressure system will approach the area tonight leading to another round of IFR possible LIFR. Winds will be light from the SW, becoming W this afternoon. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 245 AM Sat...Sub-VFR conditions likely to continue Sunday, likely improving to VFR Sunday night. Widespread showers and isolated tstms continue Sunday morning, then drying out quickly by early afternoon. Pred VFR conditions expected Mon through Wed. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 705 AM Sat... The latest buoy observations are showing SW winds 15-25 knots and seas 4-7 ft. SW winds 15-25 knots will continue this morning with occasional gusts to up 35 knots mainly across the central and southern waters during the morning. Then winds will become 15-20 knots this afternoon with winds shifting NW north of Cape Hatteras as the cold front pushes through and stalls. Seas will continue to build to 6-9 ft mainly over the central and southern water, while the 4-6 ft to the north. Seas will gradually subside during the afternoon, becoming 3-5 ft tonight. Patchy sea fog is also possible south of Oregon Inlet today as if the cold front stalls just inland and winds weaken, but confidence in coverage and duration is too low to include any fog mention in the official forecast at this point. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 245 AM Sat...SW winds are forecast to increase again Sunday to 15-25 kt, highest south of Oregon Inlet and over the Pamlico Sound, as yet another low pressure system and cold front impact the waters. Seas will peak at 5-8 ft Sun. The front crosses the waters Sun afternoon and early evening with winds shifting to NW 10-20 kt and seas slowly subsiding to 3-5 ft by early Mon morning. Surface high pressure will gradually build in from the west through mid week. NW winds 10-20 kt Monday, becoming more W Tue. The gradient will tighten Tue night and Wed, and confidence is increasing that NW winds will increase to 15-25 kt and the waters will see a period SCA conditions. Seas likely building to 4-7 ft. Conditions will slowly improve across the waters Wed afternoon and evening. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...BM SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...JME/CQD AVIATION...CQD/BM MARINE...CQD/BM