203 FXUS64 KHUN 020411 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1011 PM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 .NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight) Issued at 1010 PM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 Low stratus is encroaching on NW Alabama and will spread across northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee overnight. These clouds will keep overnight lows up a bit overnight. Temperatures are already in the low 40s, and once the clouds move in temperatures won't drop much more, so lows will only get down to around 40 degrees. .SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 A shortwave trough at 500 mb will deepen to a closed low as it progresses through the Mid Mississippi Valley tomorrow. Fortunately, the drier post-frontal airmass will remain in place through the weekend, and therefore should only result in scattered showers across the TN Valley as a result of the broad lift. The low quickly shifts to the northeast and surface high pressure centered over the Northern Gulf of Mexico will help dominate our weather for the remainder of the weekend. With drier air and dew points in the 30s entering our area on Sunday, look for highs on Saturday to reach the mid to upper 50s on Saturday and then upper 40s on Sunday when the cooler and drier airmass settles over the region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 The long term portion of the forecast will be categorized by a building ridge/high pressure over the Southern Plains. Despite northwest flow, temperatures will warm each day through the mid-week period. Highs will begin in the mid 50s on Monday and will reach near 60 degrees on Wednesday. Overnight lows will begin in the 30s and trend warmer each night. With large scale subsidence in place, expect to stay dry during this time period, but another trough looks to swing through the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Gradient winds will begin to increase late Wednesday, and will advect better moisture into the area. Will introduce a slight chance for showers late Wednesday night with no thunder expected. Rain chances will persist through Thursday, mainly due to timing differences in long term guidance. Slightly cooler temperatures will follow into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 532 PM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 VFR conditions this evening will give way to approaching clouds currently over northern Mississippi. Cigs being observed at KUOX and KMEM show cigs down to around 2500 feet. These should arrive at KMSL around 04Z, and KHSV around 06-07Z, and hold with MVFR cigs overnight through much of Saturday. We may see cigs start to break up a bit Saturday afternoon, but there is a good chance we are never really clear of the MVFR through the end of the TAF period. Winds currently gusting to 15-20 kt will diminish by 04-06Z, and remain fairly light and variable through the rest of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...McCoy SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...McCoy For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.