529 
FXUS64 KMEG 012136
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
336 PM CST Fri Jan 1 2021

.DISCUSSION...

A blustery New Year's Day across the Mid-South. Latest surface
analysis places two areas of low pressure north of the Mid-South.
One is just east of Saint Louis, Missouri and another low near
Fort Knox, Kentucky. This has kept a stout pressure gradient over
the region, with gusts to 30 mph throughout the day. Both areas of
low pressure are expected to lift north away from the Mid-South
over the next several hours, with winds relaxing by this evening.  

A cold front currently extends southward through Centerville, 
Tennessee from the latter low pressure system. Temperatures have 
generally fallen throughout the day as cold air has filtered in 
behind the front. The exception was near the Tennessee River, 
where temperatures rose into the upper 60s under mostly sunny 
skies in the dry slot. The rest of the area is in the mid to upper
40s under overcast skies. Expect stratus to remain over the 
region overnight, keeping air temperatures from falling too much. 
Lows will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s due to moderate CAA. 

A clipper type system will push through the region tomorrow
afternoon. This will keep abundant cloud cover over the region
along with the chance for light rain along and north of I-40
Saturday afternoon and early evening. QPF totals look to remain
light, less than a tenth of an inch, as temperatures fall into the
upper 30s tomorrow evening. Soundings suggest that a light rain snow
mix could occur in the Missouri Bootheel as the system lifts 
north tomorrow night. No impacts are expected due to warm surface
temps. 

Clear skies will finally return to the Mid-South on Sunday as 
surface high pressure builds in from the west. Expect seasonal 
highs with readings in the upper 40s. Dry and sunny conditions 
will persist across the region through Wednesday as high pressure 
remains over the region. Highs will creep into the mid to upper 
50s each day. Rain will return to the Mid-South Wednesday night
into Thursday as a low pressure system moves across the Lower 
Mississippi Valley through late week. 

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Ceilings are filling back in across the Mid-South with cloud bases 
around 2500 ft AGL. Expect cloud deck to lower slowly into this 
evening. IFR conditions with ceilings under 1000 ft AGL are expected 
by morning and will continue through the morning. Gusty southwest 
winds will diminish and become more westerly overnight. A cold front 
will move through the area by Saturday morning resulting in light 
northwest winds. 

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$