409 FXUS65 KFGZ 291015 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 315 AM MST Tue Dec 29 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered rain and snow showers will continue through early this evening, most frequent over the high terrain. Expect dry conditions on Wednesday before another cold front brings scattered showers back to the area later Thursday into Friday. A weak ridge of high pressure will build in over the weekend with warming temperatures and dry weather. && .DISCUSSION...The weakening cold front over eastern Arizona continues to produce a southwest to northeast oriented band of precipitation. This is falling in the form of snow for areas above 5000-5500 feet. Observations and radar data suggest the showers are light to occasionally moderate with a couple inches of accumulation possible by sunrise. The rest of the area is fairly quiet at the moment with areas of low clouds and even some patchy fog. We are watching a secondary piece of energy near Lake Havasu producing additional precipitation. This may produce light snow shower activity over Yavapai County early this morning as it passes through, but amounts are expected to remain an inch or less. The disturbance will continue to track across the region through early this evening, combining with increased instability from daytime heating to produce isolated to scattered rain and snow showers. These showers will be most frequent over the higher terrain. While significant accumulations are not anticipated, the heavier showers may produce brief periods of reduced visibility and snow on area roadways. Strengthening northeasterly flow behind the trough will produce locally gusty conditions tonight into Wednesday along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Areas that do have winds go calm across the higher elevations will see temperatures plummet into the single digits. A few readings below zero are not out of the question by Wednesday morning, especially in locations with fresh snow cover. Another cold front will pass through the region Thursday into Friday. A dry trajectory from the north means this system will have little moisture to work with. However, a quick shot of isolated to scattered snow showers is possible with the frontal passage. Weak ridging builds in for the weekend with daytime temperatures warming to slightly above normal values. Ensemble guidance continues to hint at the potential for additional precipitation mid to late next week. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect MVFR/IFR CIGS/VISBY in - SHRA/-SHSN as an eastward moving cold front is just east of a KPAN- Four Corners line. The front will move past the White Mountains into New Mexico by 18Z. Periods of IFR CIGS are likely at higher terrain sites until around 18Z. Redevelopment of -SHRA/-SHSN is possible until around 01Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A band of rain and snow showers will continue to spread eastward along a cold front east of a Payson-Four Corners line this morning. Scattered showers are possible across the rest of northern Arizona until after sunset this evening. Expect lighter west to northwest winds today. Winds will become northeasterly tonight and Wednesday. .Thursday through Saturday...Another low pressure system may bring below normal temperatures and light shower activity to the area from Thursday into Friday. Otherwise, expect modest west through north winds, with a return of light winds and near normal temperatures by Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...TPS AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff