860 
FXUS65 KFGZ 271633
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
935 AM MST Sun Dec 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Locally breezy winds continue today with snow showers
possible near the Utah border. An approaching storm system will 
create windy conditions on Monday. Chances for rain and snow will
increase Monday afternoon and into Tuesday as the storm moves 
across Arizona. Dry conditions will return on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Moisture convergence in the warm sector of our 
approaching storm will lead to rain/snow showers in far northern 
Arizona this afternoon. Current grids have some localized impacts 
and PoPs are higher from the package issued yesterday. This looks 
good, but we will need to monitor to potentially increase PoPs even 
further.

Otherwise, all eyes are on our approaching Pacific storm. Expect 
upslope flow and low-level instability to increase tonight, with 
showers breaking out ahead of the front during the day Monday. The 
bulk of the precipitation will wait until Monday night, associated 
with the cold front, with lingering post-frontal instability showers 
through Tuesday.

Models have backed off a bit on QPF totals since yesterday and the 
current forecast reflects that. Although most snow totals are not 
impressive, impacts could be fairly widespread as snow levels 
plummet below 4000 feet Monday night.

The other concern is pre-frontal wind speeds. Many areas from east 
Flagstaff eastward will likely exceed Wind Advisory criteria and it 
is likley that headlines will be issued this afternoon.

That's all for now, no short term updates planned at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Some -SHSN may produce areas of 
MVFR or even local IFR cig/vsby through 03Z north of KGCN. Sfc winds 
S-SW 5-15 kts with gusts up to 20kts this afternoon, especially over 
higher terrain. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions through 18z 
Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Light snow showers are possible over the Kaibab 
Plateau today, with dry and mild weather elsewhere. Light southwest 
winds today will increase significantly on Monday. Expect cooler 
temperatures, with rain and snow showers spreading west to east by 
Monday afternoon and evening.

Tuesday through Thursday...Cold Tuesday with rain and snow showers 
ending from the west. Many areas will see wetting rain or snow from 
Monday night through Tuesday. Dry Wednesday and Thursday, with a 
slight warming trend. Lighter west-northwest wind Tuesday behind the 
front, turning northerly Wednesday, and back to westerly on Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...JJ/AT


For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff