868 FXUS62 KKEY 270312 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1012 PM EST Sat Dec 26 2020 .DISCUSSION... High pressure centered over the southeastern United States supports gentle to moderate north to northeast breezes across the Florida Keys. Skies are clear and the KBYX radar detects nothing but density gradients. Dewpoints fell into the 30s late this afternoon in the Middle Keys, and have since recovered. Dewpoints are near 40 for the Lower Keys. Temperatures are solidly in the mid 50s for much of the island chain, except for the Upper Keys which are uniformly near 58. An hour or two of calm winds across the Lower Keys would result in temperatures near 50, although our confidence in this scenario is low. We have held onto the inherited mid 50s with nil rain chances. && .MARINE... The earlier east to west split in the forecast (higher winds to the west) is no longer needed. However, winds surging off of the Mainland may result in similar east to west dichotomy, with winds initially higher adjacent to the Mainland. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the southeastern United States will continue eastward overnight, reaching the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday. As the high shifts east, breezes will become northeasterly. Another strong area of high pressure will move east across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, with its southern periphery bridging down the Florida Peninsula. High pressure will move off the Mid- Atlantic coast on Wednesday, with fresh to strong east- southeast breezes developing over the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. The next cold front will be near the Florida Keys Thursday night. && .AVIATION... VFR and northeast breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals overnight. Forecast soundings indicate a brief period of MVFR CIGS for EYW as winds surge off of the Mainland, similar to the predawn observations from this morning. Warm air advection Sunday afternoon will allow stratocumulus layers based at 050-060 to move into the MTH terminal. && .CLIMATE... The coldest temperatures of 2020 for EYW are 52 and 55, from January and February, while a pair of 57s have already been recorded this month. The low temperature so far today (December 26th) is 54 degrees. If Key West can go calm for a couple hours, then the yearly minimum will be in jeopardy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 54 70 64 75 / 0 0 - - Marathon 55 69 64 75 / 0 - - - && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest