476 
FXUS63 KEAX 252016
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
216 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 215 CST FRI DEC 25 2020

Key Messages:
-Merry Christmas!
-Small warm-up over the weekend; morning lows remain cold in the 20s.
-Chance for wintry mix, rain, and snow next Tuesday through 
Wednesday morning.

...Short Term...(21Z Today through Sunday)

A deep mid to upper level trough will continue to push farther to 
the east, leaving the Great Plains and Midwest in upper level 
northwesterly flow through Saturday morning. A surface boundary is 
currently draped north to south across OK, KS, and NE, and will 
slowly push its way farther east and closer to the MO/KS border by 
the end of the day.  The current surface winds from the south will 
help nudge temps up a dew degrees, but with the upper level flow 
holding strong from the NW, highs for Christmas day will sit in the 
mid to upper 30s for eastern KS/western MO, with central and eastern 
MO remain cold in the upper 20s. 

Saturday morning lows will remain chilly in the upper teens to lower 
20s across the region. By Saturday late morning, surface flow will 
take on a SSW component as a mid-level shortwave ridge amplifies 
over the Southern Plains. This feature will translate over the lower 
Midwest, helping nudge temps into a more comfortable range with 
afternoon highs in the mid 50s in southern KS/MO and ranging into 
the lower 40s in northern MO/KS. A weak cold front is expected to 
develop over the Central Plains early Sunday morning, which is 
expected to move SE through the rest of the day, taking temps back 
down a few notches in the 30s by Monday. Zonal flow aloft will help 
keep the atmosphere on the dry side, so this frontal passage will 
likely remain dry.  This will keep precip chances at zero through 
the remainder of the weekend and Monday.

...Long Term...(Monday through Wednesday)

We are continuing to monitor the chance for an active weather pattern 
starting up as early as Tuesday morning.  An upper level trough will 
make landfall on the west coast of the CONUS Monday, continuing to 
amplify as it crosses the Rockies and into the Great Plains region 
by Wednesday.  As this system digs its way east, this will place our 
forecast area in a good spot to receive mid and upper level 
southwesterly slow.  These warm and moist winds will pair with a 
strengthening LLJ with a southerly orientation. This LLJ aid in 
bringing a rich moisture supply to fuel this weather event. Adequate 
mixing from these upper to mid level jets should help mix the 
atmosphere in our region, eventually saturating our dry air enough 
to see appreciable precip.  

There is still uncertainty in the exact precip types we will see 
throughout Tuesday. Before a warm front moves through the Southern 
Plains on Tuesday, we do expect frozen precip Tuesday morning for 
areas ahead of the front. Following the frontal passage, much of our 
forecast area can expect the frozen precip to transition to rain as 
temps rise above freezing. Rain chances which will likely last for 
most of Tuesday before a strong cold front drops out of the Upper 
Plains and cools us back down to freezing. Models are keeping the 
surface low just to the NW of our forecast area, which limits the 
amount of snowfall we would receive closer to the KC Metro and 
central MO. Though the chance for measurable snow is not out of the 
realm of possibility. The best chance for snow still remains in 
northern MO and northeast KS. Any lingering snow throughout 
Wednesday should precipitate as flurries, and is expected to vacate 
the forecast area completely by Wednesday evening.
&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1051 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2020

VFR conditions will prevail for this entire TAF period. Winds are 
expected to remain under 10kts with clear skies through tomorrow. 


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Klaus
Aviation...Klaus