754 
FXUS64 KMEG 242059
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
259 PM CST Thu Dec 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a reinforcing
arctic cold front from Lower Michigan back through Southern 
Illinois, North Central Arkansas, and Southwest Missouri. GOES-16 
Satellite trends indicate some diurnal based cumulus across the 
Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures as of 2 PM CST in the 
30s at most locations. 

The aforementioned arctic cold front will move through the Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight bringing a reinforcement of cold 
arctic air into the area and the coldest air of the season thus 
far. Low temperatures tonight will drop back into the teens to 
lower 20s with wind chill values dropping into the single digits 
above zero along and north of I-40. Temperatures will remain cold 
on Christmas Day with highs ranging from the upper 20s across West
Tennessee near the Tennessee River lower 30s across the Missouri 
Bootheel, Southwest Tennessee and middle 30s across much of North 
Mississippi. 

Temperatures will gradually moderate back into the 50s for highs
this weekend in advance of another cold front that will drop into
the Lower Mississippi Valley for Sunday night into Monday morning.
This next front will bring the next chance for rain showers into
the area. 

Long term models indicate an unsettled pattern for the middle of
next week as another upper level trough and associated cold front
move through the Mississippi Valley. At this time, it appears the
best potential for thunderstorms will remain mostly confined
towards the Gulf Coast with a potential for some wintry
precipitation to mix in with the rain especially next Wednesday
night across the Mid-South. It's too early to pinpoint 
precipitation types this far out but forecast trends will continue
to be monitored in subsequent model runs.

CJC





&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

SCT/BKN stratocumulus has developed east of MKL as expected.
Coverage will likely increase a bit through 20Z, but cloud bases
should continue at VFR altitude. A few -SHSN can't be ruled out 
east of MKL through 22Z. Reinforcing cold front will bring a bump
in the predawn winds, with some gust potential through 18Z. 

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$