033 
FXUS62 KKEY 210332
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1032 PM EST Sun Dec 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - An elongated multi centered trough extends from off
the mid Atlantic coast, across north Florida and extends into the
Gulf of mexico. An associated frontal boundary is marching 
southeastwards through the gulf of Mexico with a band of showers 
and a few thunderstorms aligned along the leading prefrontal 
trough. The Keys are in a rather weak pressure pattern ahead of 
this trough. As a result, winds are currently light and range from
southeast to south on our eastern waters, to south to southwest 
on our western waters. This warm moist southerly flow has brought 
in relatively high dew points broadly near 70, with temperatures 
how settling down through the mid 70s. Earlier shower activity 
associated with a veering flow and the Cuban convergence boundary 
dissipated early this evening, and now virtually no showers are 
located within the forecast area.

Short Term Update - The frontal system will continue to move
southeastwards through the overnight period. As the prefrontal
trough nears, winds will shift further south and southwest towards
morning. The convective activity may begin moving into our outer
gulf waters late in the overnight, however, should hold off on
reaching the island chain until the morrow. The light flow should
allow temperatures to fall a bit further overnight under currently
mostly clear skies. Some cloud decks may move in ahead of the
front in the predawn hours. The weak flow with little to no
forcing aloft should help to keep pops slight overnight. Have only
updated to remove the shower wording for this past evenings
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is expected to move through Keys waters tomorrow, 
and should begin pushing into the deep gulf waters early in the 
morning. Ahead of this front, winds will gradually veer more south
to southwest,remaining light. As the frontal system begins to 
move through, expect winds to shift northwest and freshen some. 
Cautions and Advisories are not expected to be required for this 
front. Only minor adjustments made to account for the evolving
wind field this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected at the island terminals through the
overnight period. Light southeast to south winds will shift more
south to southwest through this time. A cold front is expected to
push through the area early tomorrow. Expect winds to shift
northwest and strengthen to a gentle to moderate occasionally
gusty breeze. A period of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected as
the front moves through. This will be due to both low cloud decks
and the potential for associated shower activity.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....KR

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