928 FXUS64 KCRP 162331 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 531 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2020 .AVIATION... Skies to remain clear throughout the period. VFR conditions to prevail at all sites through Thursday as surface high pressure settles in over South Texas. Light northeasterly winds expected to become easterly by the afternoon as the high pressure moves away from the area. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)... Surface high pressure ridge will settle into south Texas tonight with winds becoming light. With clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling will lead to temperatures falling to just below freezing across the northern counties of south Texas. NBM was close to the BCCONSshort for lows tonight with readings likely a couple of degrees cooler than MOS guidance. Freeze Warning will be in effect from 08Z-14Z. The high pressure ridge will translate to the east to southeast Texas into the northwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday with a weak onshore flow developing by the afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer Thursday but still remain slightly below normal. The low level flow will increase Thursday night, especially over the Brush Country, as a lee side trough develops ahead of an upper trough moving into the central Rockies. This will increase the southerly flow 25-30 knots late Thursday night. Moisture will advect back into the region with clouds returning to the Coastal Bend and western Brush Country before daybreak Friday morning. LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... High pressure will shift east out of the area on Friday allowing onshore flow to return and bring some moisture into the area. Temperatures will be on the warmer side for this time of year as warm air advects from Mexico into the area and keeps highs on Friday in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. A mid-upper level low pressure system will enter the area overnight Friday. As the low pressure quickly shifts east it will send a cold front south into the area. Moisture advected from Friday's onshore flow will combine with isentropic lift at the 300K level and a vort max in the H5 level and yield a chance of precipitation on Saturday ahead of the front. Highest chances for precipitation will be for the Victoria Crossroads and areas along and east of the Coastal Plains. Precipitation chances will diminish rapidly from west to east as the front moves offshore Sunday morning. Behind the front, expect temperatures to be only a few degrees cooler with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Heading into next week, day time temperatures will once again warm into the 70s as mid to upper level high pressure builds into the area and south-southeasterly winds bring in warm and moist air. Lows will drop into the upper 30s and 40s Sunday night following the cold front. Similar overnight conditions are expected Monday night before a warming trend begins and brings overnight lows into the 50s by Wednesday. The next chance for a cold front may be the middle of next week. Models show a mid-level trough moving through the state on Wednesday with a cold front pushing into the area late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. This could bring cooler temperatures and another chance of precipitation just in time for Christmas; however, with this being the end of the long-term period, there is some uncertainty as to the strength and timing of this next front. We will continue to monitor this over the next few days as models come into more agreement. MARINE... Moderate offshore winds will linger at SCEC levels until 00Z Thursday. Offshore winds will continue to diminish weak to moderate levels from the north tonight as the high pressure ridge settles into south Texas. A weak to moderate northeast flow Thursday morning will become easterly in the afternoon and southeasterly Thursday night. Light onshore flow will increase to moderate levels Friday afternoon and Saturday before another cold front pushes through later in the day Saturday. Moderate offshore winds are expected in the wake of the front Saturday Evening through Sunday morning. Small Craft should Exercise Caution Friday and continuing through the weekend. Isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday night becoming more numerous ahead of the front on Saturday. Dry conditions are expected Sunday in the wake of the front. Onshore flow will return late Monday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 35 64 50 72 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 Victoria 31 63 40 69 57 / 0 0 0 0 20 Laredo 37 68 46 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Alice 33 67 45 74 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 Rockport 39 63 53 72 60 / 0 0 0 0 20 Cotulla 32 67 42 71 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 34 67 46 73 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 42 63 56 71 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Thursday For the following zones: Bee...Goliad...Inland Refugio...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Victoria. GM...None. && $$ BF/80...AVIATION