412 FXUS65 KPUB 131715 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1015 AM MST Sun Dec 13 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 718 AM MST Sun Dec 13 2020 As the main upper trough continues to pull away to the southeast, the anticipated drier air has quickly moved across southern CO. This has not only put a quick end to any heavy snow, but all snow with dry weather currently being observed over the entire area. Some gusty winds with patchy blowing snow are still likely occurring across far southeast CO, though winds have diminished and expect that trend to continue here in the near term. While the snow has come to an end, some snow covered roads can be expected across southern CO. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 409 AM MST Sun Dec 13 2020 Main Forecast Concerns/Challenges: 1) Light to moderate snow continuing across parts of the eastern mountains early this morning with minor additional amounts expected, and with a Winter Weather Advisory remaining in place. 2) Light to moderate snow continuing across the far southeast plains through mid to late morning with minor additional amounts expected, and with a Winter Weather Advisory still in effect for Otero and Bent, and a Winter Storm Warning still in effect for eastern Las Animas, Prowers, and Baca counties. 3) Patchy fog this morning around the Palmer Divide. Latest radar imagery depicting snow continuing across parts of the eastern mountains and plains early this morning, as the main upper trough continues to swing across the region. Vis in the stronger development is right around 1 mile, with vis of around 1/2 mile occurring across far southeast CO. A steadily drying trend from northwest to southeast is occurring, and expect this to continue to be the trend this morning. Upper trough/low and surface trough will steadily move south this morning, along with any mesoscale support. The WAA and FGEN really focused at 700mb overnight has been pulling away, and expect it to completely shift east over the next couple of hours. Favorable usplope flow will continue through a part of this morning across the eastern mountains and Palmer Divide, though much drier air will quickly push south across the region and further diminish any snow development over the next 2-3 hours. So, based on the anticipated snow through mid to late morning, the only Advisories and Warnings still in effect are for the eastern mountains and far southeast plains. The arrival of this drier could help erode any snow development quicker, and could see these headlines being cancelled early. The arrival of the drier air will help clear skies, with sunny conditions anticipated later today. The lower stratus in place over the far southeast and around the Palmer Divide may take some time to erode, but still expect that to occur today. Some patchy fog has also been noted around the Palmer Divide, and could easily see some patchy dense fog develop early this morning before this also erodes today. Did make some minor adjustments to the highs for today, lowering them a few degrees. Despite sunny skies today, the fresh snow pack will likely help keep temps down some and think temps in the 20s across the mountain valleys and plains will be observed today. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 409 AM MST Sun Dec 13 2020 Monday and Tuesday...The next upper level system to affect the area will approach CO on Mon, bringing snow to the Continental Divide Mon morning, then to much of the forecast area including the plains Mon night through Tue morning. This system at face value looks very much like the system that rolled across the region yesterday. However, models are indicating this upper trough will cross the area a little farther north, and will be slightly weaker, so the expected total snowfall from this disturbance should be much less. High temps Mon will range from the 20s and 30s across the west, to the 40s across the plains where conditions will remain dry and seasonal through at least the first half of the day. Tue will be cold everywhere with highs only in the 20s and 30s. Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridge of high pressure settles in across the region for a couple of days, in between disturbances. Dry and seasonable conditions are anticipated both days, with highs in the upper 20s and 30s for the high valleys, and mid 30s to mid 40s for the plains. Friday and Saturday...Long range models hint at another upper trough of low pressure moving in from the West Coast, starting to affect western CO by Thu night. At this time it it hard to quantify what this means for the state, though models are hinting at this feature glancing by to the north. Safe bet will be some mt snow Thu night through Sat morning, with temps at or slightly below seasonal norms. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1012 AM MST Sun Dec 13 2020 VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all three terminals with light winds less than 10 kts. Clear skies through this afternoon, will have increasing mid and high level clouds this evening, through the overnight period. This increased cloud cover should keep fog from developing at KALS and KPUB. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...MOZLEY