526 FXUS62 KFFC 122349 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 649 PM EST Sat Dec 12 2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM EST Sat Dec 12 2020/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... The cold front currently bisecting Alabama from northeast to southwest continues to make gradual eastward progress into the forecast area this afternoon. As the parent low over the Great Lakes quickly moves northeastward, frontal forcing will continue to diminish into tonight but will remain sufficient for light rain showers. These showers will slowly progress across the area with the front through late tonight before diminishing as the front becomes stationary over the middle of the forecast area by Sunday morning. Total QPF through the morning will be light, ranging from a few hundredths to perhaps as high as a quarter inch in far north Georgia. A brief dry respite will hold through most of the day Sunday, even bringing some breaks in the cloud cover across north Georgia at times. However, a fast-approaching shortwave over the Red River Valley and associated developing surface low over Texas/Louisiana will bring a quick end to the dry conditions. The path of the surface low continues to shift slightly farther north than previous forecasts with current expectations of a track across north Georgia Sunday night. As the surface low moves northeastward along the stalled frontal boundary, showers will begin to increase after sunset Sunday evening as isentropic lift increases. Coverage and intensity of rainfall will then rapidly increase during the overnight hours Sunday night into early Monday morning as the low quickly traverses the area. Widespread flooding concerns are not currently expected given antecedent drier conditions, though rainfall totals will likely approach 2 inches in the north Georgia mountains by the time the rain quickly tapers off Monday morning. Otherwise, totals over an inch can be expected generally along and north of I-85 with lesser amounts in Middle Georgia. Given nonexistent surface instability, thunderstorm activity is not a concern, though sufficient elevated instability may exist for a few rumbles of thunder. RW LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... The main focus of the long term portions of the forecast will be the potential for wintry precip mid-week. Continuing from the short term period, precip should be clearing the area on Monday morning as that low pressure system continues to move east of the area. As temperatures have continued to trend upward, so still thinking there's little threat of any wintry precip in the higher elevations of northeast Georgia Monday morning. Behind this system, high pressure builds in at the surface through Tuesday. As that high pressure begins to move east, high pressure noses down the Appalachians, building in a wedge by Tuesday afternoon, just ahead of the next system. To our west over the Plains, a developing low pressure system is expected to work its way towards the local forecast area on Tuesday. As the trough approaches, the upper level flow switches to more southwesterly and moisture begins to move into the area by overnight Tuesday/early Wednesday morning. At the surface, a low looks to form in the northern Gulf by Wednesday morning, moving northeast across northern FL and southeast GA Wednesday afternoon/evening. Precip looks to clear the area by later Wednesday night. As of the current forecast, showers are possible beginning overnight Tuesday/early Wednesday morning continuing through the day on Wednesday before tapering off late. More importantly, there is potential for some wintry precip with this system across portions of northeast Georgia late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Current thinking still points towards potential for freezing rain with the wedge in place and warm temps aloft. At the surface, overnight lows Wednesday morning may dip into the low-30s across the higher elevations of the northeast. It's still too early to discuss any specifics for accumulations, but some light accumulations may be possible on elevated surfaces. There's still plenty of uncertainty with this system considering it is still several days away and there are some slight differences in models as far as strength of the wedge, how quickly the wedge will erode, and timing/location of the center of the low. All of these factors will influence p-type so make sure to stay updated to any forecast changes as this system approaches. Reaves && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... MVFR cigs have been slow to develop across the ATL area terminals despite being poised just to the NW for the last several hours. Eventually the light rain shield will allow for the cigs to lower to mVFR and then quickly to IF and LIFR. Some indications that VLIFR will be possible for a few hours Sunday morning but will hold off including just yet. It is going to be hard to clear out tomorrow afternoon before next system moves in. Will show improvement to MVFR by afternoon but keep BKN conditions throughout with this forecast. Winds have come back around briefly to SSE at ATL but should become westerly and remain that way in the next few hours. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... Medium on VLIFR potential and LIFR duration. High on remaining elements. Deese && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 53 68 52 60 / 60 20 80 50 Atlanta 53 65 48 53 / 60 20 90 40 Blairsville 46 61 42 47 / 80 10 100 40 Cartersville 49 63 44 52 / 70 20 100 30 Columbus 56 68 54 59 / 50 20 70 30 Gainesville 51 65 48 55 / 70 20 90 40 Macon 55 70 56 62 / 40 20 50 40 Rome 47 62 45 52 / 60 20 100 20 Peachtree City 52 66 48 56 / 60 20 80 40 Vidalia 56 73 60 67 / 20 20 20 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....Reaves AVIATION...Deese