857 FXUS64 KHGX 121055 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 455 AM CST Sat Dec 12 2020 .SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday Afternoon]... Dense fog developed this morning and is expected to continue through mid-morning. Our northern counties should begin to clear out first as the cold front pushes further south and brings in stronger, drier air to help dissipate this fog. Skies should clear today and temps should reach the low to mid 70s. On Sunday, a warm front will push through SE Texas and bring with it showers, thunderstorms, and the potential for severe weather as SPC has placed SE Texas in a marginal risk. Deterministic, ensemble, and CAM model guidance are in good agreement with the timing, duration, and intensity of this next system. The approaching warm front will advect S-SE winds and help to moisten and destabilize the atmosphere enough for scattered thunderstorms to form. Low-level SRH looks decent enough for rotating storms, however models indicate that CAPE will be still be unimpressive for storm growth. Showers and storms should fill in Sunday afternoon as the upper-level trough moves closer to the region. KBL && .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]... Sunday evening the cold front will be pushing off the coast and through the coastal waters ending the rain/storm threat. Much cooler air will gust into the region and will make for a chilly evening. Wind chill readings of 40s at 7 pm should fall into the upper 20s northwestern counties to mid 30 at the coast by sunrise. Skies will be mostly cloudy with clearing though some wrap around trapped moisture will be present so expect some cold stratocu to be present into Monday afternoon then clear. Surface high pressure shifts east quickly and southeasterly flow returns late Monday night as the next southern stream trough moves into the 4 Corners. Pressures fall over W TX Tuesday morning and SETX should warm up nicely with the WAA pattern firmly in place before the associated cold front races into the region from the west. Cold front pushes through and off the coast by early evening Tuesday and then the much cooler air comes through Wednesday morning boosting the gusty northwesterly winds. Winds relaxing in the late afternoon and high pressure settles over SETX Thursday morning and coldest morning of the week should take place with 29-32 degrees being widespread over the areas from Columbus to Conroe to Liberty and only a few degrees warmer to the south. Abundant sunshine on tap Thursday with light winds and dry conditions. High pressure slides away to the east on Friday and return flow gets underway with a warming trend and eventually slight chance to low end chance POPs for Saturday. The timing of the Saturday system still somewhat in question though the GFS/ECMWF are in surprisingly good agreement...but looking at the upper pattern have some concerns that it may end up being slower to come through. && .MARINE... A dense fog advisory is in effect this morning, but conditions should improve this morning as the front pushes through and brings in drier air and faster winds to help mix out the fog. A SCA is in effect for our coastal waters 20 to 60 nm out due to 6-7 ft seas, but they are expected to subside early this morning. With the next frontal system pushing through on Sunday, behind it offshore winds will increase to SCA conditions again with gusts reaching near gale force and seas reaching 9+ ft. Winds and seas should subside by Monday evening as a surface high builds in. The next system to monitor is a cold front on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Once again, it will bring gusty conditions and increased wave heights. KBL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 66 49 65 37 49 / 0 20 80 0 0 Houston (IAH) 70 55 70 41 52 / 10 20 90 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 70 62 71 45 52 / 0 20 90 40 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Austin...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Waller...Wharton. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 AM CST early this morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CST early this morning for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...45 NEAR TERM...KBL SHORT TERM...KBL LONG TERM...45 AVIATION...KBL MARINE...KBL FIRE WEATHER...45 HYDROLOGY... TROPICAL... CLIMATE...45