290 FXUS65 KLKN 112258 CCA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Elko NV 258 PM PST Fri Dec 11 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Decent moisture and a changing pattern for snow Friday evening through Saturday over much of the Great Basin. Some travel issues are possible over higher summits late tonight through Saturday morning. Sunday...a short...very short break before the next system enters the region later Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday evening. Taking a snap shot of current conditions mid and high level cloudiness streams southeast into the western margins of the CWA ahead of the next low pressure system to bring precipitation into northern and central Nevada later this evening. Tonight through Saturday. Weak isentropic lift ahead the incoming cold front will provide the initial forcing and lift to spread light into northern Nevada later this evening. Snow across northern Nevada will range 1-4 inches for many valley locations for before the cold front passes east and southeast across the eastern part of the state during the early morning hours Saturday between 09-12Z. The main impact of accumulating snow will be focused across mountain passes along US highway 50 in central Nevada during the early morning hours prior to sunrise where the most impressive upper dynamics will be directed. Bursts of heavy snow are a real possibility over terrain favored areas of central Nevada in the morning. Austin pass should still receive 3-6 inches of newly accumulated snow before the cold front pushes south and southeast into northern Nye and White Pine counties after 15-17Z Saturday morning. Higher mountain areas above 7000 feet across the Toiyabe, Monitor, and Ruby ranges could still get 6-9 inches at the higher crests. Some isolated snow showers could linger over the higher mountain areas Saturday afternoon till sunset. By Saturday evening much of the precipitation will have ended across most areas of northern and central Nevada. Winds should not be an issue but higher passes could see gusts increase 15 to 20mph from the northwest as the frontal boundary passes during the morning hours of Saturday. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for all but northeast Nye County from 10 pm PST Friday through 10 pm PST Saturday. As always when traveling through mountain areas during wintry conditions extra care should be taken for slippery conditions during the colder early morning hours. Overnight lows will be teens and 20’s with some single digit readings in colder northers Elko County valleys. Max temperatures will vary from the high 20s to high 30s. Saturday night through Monday evening. A quick passing short wave ridge on Sunday allows for some partly sunny conditions with the likely outcome that much of the newly fallen valley snow melting away in the warming daytime hours till the next upstream system bring morning wintry conditions. More snow is expected for northern Nevada later Sunday evening through Monday morning. Most the impacts will be directed further northeast as upper dynamics are more focused across northeast Nevada with this next in-line winter system. Early snowfall accumulation forecasts show most valley areas receiving 1-2 inches, Immigrant Pass with 2-3 inches, and the Ruby and Jarbidge mountains getting 5-9 inches of fresh snow. But uncertainty is high for system timing and available moisture even though model guidance is leaning towards a slightly drier solution. Sunday morning lows will be in the single digits to teens. Sunday and Monday highs will mostly be in the 30s. .LONG TERM...Monday night through next Friday. A progressive wave pattern will allow another ridge to slide over the region Tuesday and Wednesday bringing mostly dry conditions to the area although some flurries/light snow may linger over far northern Nevada Tuesday. It is looking more active as another winter weather system could drop into the state late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing more snow to mainly northern Nevada. However, confidence is still fairly low for the midweek time frame with increasing ensemble member spread and diverging solutions in the GFS and ECMWF. Conditions could be blustery Monday with wind gusts around 25 mph and snow in northern Nevada. Gusty winds are possible through next week in general from the west and southwest. Temperatures will be quite cool Tuesday with most locations remaining in the 30s. Lows will be in the teens in 20s with single digits in valleys possible during more cloud free nights. Temperatures will moderate a bit by mid-week back into the lower to middle 40s. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail, at least through 00Z Saturday. Cloud ceilings will be lowering across northwest NV, possibly impacting KWMC with light snow in the vicinity. The probability of this occurring is between 25-50% by 03Z Saturday. Light snow will be spreading eastward to KBAM and KEKO, but current projections are narrowing after the 06Z Saturday. Weather is expected to make it sound at the KELY terminal after 09Z Saturday. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Saturday for Humboldt County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County- Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County- Southeastern Elko County-Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwest Elko County-White Pine County. && $$ 97/86/86