149 FXUS64 KCRP 111246 AAA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 646 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020 .DISCUSSION... Update to increase wind over the Coastal Bend and adjacent bay waters. 30-40 knot winds aloft, yet anticipate that vertical mixing will be limited. Nevertheless, expect 15-20 knot wind over portions of the Coastal Bend and over the bay waters. Updated the ALI/CRP/VCT TAFs to include non-convective vertical wind shear until 14z today. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 549 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020/ DISCUSSION... Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 12z TAFs. AVIATION... VFR conditions expected during the TAF period over the West. MVFR conditions anticipated over the Central/East this morning, then transition to VFR from west to east this afternoon/evening in response to a frontal boundary. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected near the boundary over the Victoria Crossroads/northern Coastal Bend, and to a lesser extent over the southern Coastal Bend. Predominate VFR expected areawide after 00z Saturday. Generally weak to moderate south wind in advance of the front, followed by northwest wind after frontal passage. Generally light west wind expected overnight. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 407 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... An upper level disturbance is predicted to move across the SRN Plains/TX today (significant dynamics over the CWA with 700-300mb Q-vector convergence and under the RRQ of an upper jet streak per the GFS/NAM deterministic runs) then lifts NEWD, while another system enters the Rockies tonight/Saturday. The NAM/GFS predicts PWAT values above normal this morning over the CWA. In response to the first upper system, a surface boundary/front is expected to move EWD across the CWA today, then slowly move offshore tonight/Saturday. Isolated/scattered convection expected over the ERN CWA today, with instability as the limiting factor. Only the NERN CWA is expected to have sufficient surface and elevated CAPE to generate thunderstorms. Only isolated elevated convection anticipated over the SERN CWA, yet mainly showers. No convection expected over the WRN CWA given near zero surface and elevated CAPE expected per the NAM deterministic (although the lift of a convectively unstable layer may result in isolated convection over the west, not confident to add precipitation to the west.) Much drier conditions are expected from west to east this afternoon/ tonight in response to the surface trough. A weak surface high pressure system expected over the CWA Saturday. LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... An upper low will approach the TX Panhandle Sat night which will deepen surface pressure across W TX into northern Mexico. The surface high will shift east with a warm front lifting north across S TX. This will bring increasing moisture across the area through early Sunday morning. The WAA will lead to above normal highs for Sunday. The upper low will push a cold front into S TX Sunday and off the coast by late Sunday afternoon or evening. The NAM is a tad faster with the frontal passage, but overall general agreement with models progging some precip across northern and eastern portions of the CWA beginning early Sunday morning and increasing through Sunday afternoon as the front moves southeast across S TX. Best chance for convection will be across the Victoria Crossroads and over the gulf waters due to deeper moisture and moderate instability. Models prog quick drying from west to east through Sunday night along with breezy north winds and cooler temps Sunday night and Monday. A progressive upper pattern will bring another upper trough toward TX, which will push the surface high east of the area with winds shifting quickly back to the southeast by Monday afternoon/evening. The second upper trough will push another cold front through S TX by Tue afternoon or evening. This will maintain mild highs and chilly lows through middle of next week. Model solutions diverge quite a bit the latter part of next week. Went with the NBM for Thu which brings onshore flow back to S TX along with slightly warmer temps and increasing low level moisture. MARINE... Isolated/scattered convection expected today in response to an upper level disturbance/moisture/approaching boundary. Much drier conditions expected tonight/Saturday. A weak to moderate onshore flow is expected Saturday night through much of the day Sunday ahead of a cold front. The cold front is forecast to move off the coast by late Sunday afternoon or evening with strengthening northerly flow developing in its wake through Sunday night. Strong to very strong winds with possible gusts approaching gale, are expected Sunday night. Advisory conditions are likely Sunday night. Winds relax through the day Monday, becoming onshore by Monday evening as high pressure moves east of the area. Another cold front can be expected late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night with strong north winds developing once again in its wake. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night through Sunday ahead and along the cold front, then decreasing from west to east Sunday night behind the cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 81 54 77 59 80 / 10 0 0 10 10 Victoria 77 51 72 52 75 / 40 0 0 20 40 Laredo 81 53 80 59 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 Alice 83 53 81 57 81 / 10 0 0 10 10 Rockport 77 56 74 60 78 / 30 0 0 20 30 Cotulla 80 48 79 53 76 / 10 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 82 53 79 57 82 / 10 0 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 76 59 73 64 77 / 20 0 0 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM