725 FXUS65 KABQ 110549 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1049 PM MST Thu Dec 10 2020 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Widespread IFR conditions with areas of LIFR currently prevail across western and central NM, with VFR conditions across east central and southeast portions. Further deterioration is likely at KABQ after clouds clear out more, with the potential for fog to limit visibility to LIFR going into the mid morning hours. MVFR cigs will likely impact KTCC and KLVS overnight, while KROW remains VFR. Improvement to VFR is expected late Friday morning, with gusty west- northwest winds mixing down to the surface through Friday evening. Mountain obscurations will persist overnight and improve Friday, but will likely hang-on across the northern mountains. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...1039 PM MST Thu Dec 10 2020... .UPDATE... Accumulating snow has ended across west central New Mexico for the evening. There could be a few flurries overnight, but no additional impacts are expected. Therefore, have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for zones 202, 205 and 206. Light snow is expected to continue to fall over the northern mountains and adjacent highlands through Friday, though latest model guidance continues to trend down QPF and therefore many of the remaining advisories and warnings may be cancelled early as well. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MST Thu Dec 10 2020... .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will remain unsettled over the next few days as a couple storm systems continue to impact the area. Another round of rain and snow is expected with additional snow accumulations primarily focused over western and northern New Mexico. Another storm system on Friday will bring an additional round of snow to the northern half of the state, and then a brief break in the activity finally arrives Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Yet another system will then bring additional snow to the northern mountains and portions of northeast New Mexico Saturday night. Temperatures remain below normal through the weekend. After a brief warm up Monday, another cool down arrives on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... A moisture laden upper level trough will finish crossing the forecast area from the southwest tonight, then a colder disturbance will cross northern and eastern NM from the northwest Friday and Friday evening. Mesoscale models depict another wave of mainly snow passing northeastward across the northwest half of the forecast area this evening, then snow is predicted to linger mainly over northern areas late tonight through Friday evening. With this forecast package we will adjust the timing of Winter Weather Advisories from the Chuska Mountains to the west central mountains to reflect an earlier end to accumulating snow. Since snow will end or become more sporadic in many lower elevation locations west of the central mountain chain toward midnight, there should be patchy freezing fog tonight across the lower elevations of central, west central and northwest NM. High temperatures across northern and western areas will vary from a few to 14 degrees below normal, with some near and above normal readings across the middle Rio Grande Valley and southeast areas. 44 LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... After a chilly Friday night, temperatures will rebound nicely on Saturday, closer to normal for most locations. Guidance continued to trend temperatures up for Saturday so did increase highs another degree or two. A lee-side low over northeastern NM will allow for increased westerly winds during the afternoon, particularly along the typically breezy/windy I-40 corridor near Clines Corners. Meanwhile, yet another trough, originating from the Gulf of Alaska, will be digging southward into the central Rockies and clipping northeastern New Mexico Saturday night. Given its origins, this cold system will drop 700mb temperatures once again ranging from about -8C to -12C Saturday night behind a Pacific front moving through the area. Breezy to windy conditions will likely continue into the overnight hours across western and central NM due to a 40-50 knot H7 jet rounding the base of the trough. Highest confidence in snow showers remains across the northern mountains and northwest quadrant of the state, but questions remain in how far south and west the trough will track and if it will close off into a low over the east. Did increase PoPs and snow amounts across the north where a few inches of new snow seems possible across the mountainous terrain. If the trough does develop into a closed low over northeastern NM Saturday night like the ECMWF and Canadian depict, that could mean a lot more snow for the area, especially with a backdoor cold front and the moist sounding profiles in the dendritic growth zone that these models are depicting. Breezy to windy northerly winds continue across the far eastern plains Sunday behind the aforementioned backdoor front. Sunday's high temperatures remain cool behind the departed system, and radiational cooling will lead to a very cold night with lows in the single digits to teens across western and northern NM. Temperatures warm up on Monday, and relatively quieter conditions appear to be in store through mid-week outside of breezy afternoon winds and temperature changes. Another system clipping northern NM Monday night/Tuesday may bring another round of light snow to northern NM, but highest is in another dip in temperatures behind another cold front. Temperatures warm again Wednesday and Thursday. 15 && .FIRE WEATHER... Snow will continue to accumulate across much of northern and west central NM tonight through Friday evening as a couple of disturbances cross. There will be a break in the weather late Friday night through Saturday morning, then a chance of accumulating snow will return mainly to northern areas Saturday afternoon and night. Northwest winds will gust at speeds from 30 to 40 mph on Friday as the jet stream crosses aloft, except for northeast areas where winds will be significantly weaker. High temperatures will be below normal across much of northern and western NM Friday and Saturday, but near and above normal across the southeast. Readings will fall below normal areawide on Sunday in the wake of a gusty cold front that will drop southward through the state Saturday night. Temperatures will warm near and above normal on Monday as a ridge of high pressure crosses from the west. Another upper level trough is progged to clip northeast NM with a chance of rain and snow Monday night and Tuesday. The bigger impact with the system will be a cold front that dives southward through the state dropping temperatures near and below normal again for Tuesday. Readings should begin to rebound Wednesday. There will be pockets of poor ventilation near the CO border Friday and Saturday with improving ventilation further south due to gusty winds. Poor ventilation will then become widespread over western areas on Sunday, and over the east as well Monday. Ventilation improvement should occur on Tuesday, at least across the east. 44 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Friday night for the following zones... NMZ203-210-211-215-216-227. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST Friday night for the following zones... NMZ213-214. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Friday for the following zones... NMZ204. && $$