994 FXUS64 KSHV 091720 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1120 AM CST Wed Dec 9 2020 .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours as high pressure controls the weather pattern over the TAF sites. Winds tonight will be the very light with current southwest surface winds in the 5 to 10 mph range transitioning to more SSW tomorrow after 9 AM and picking up to more of a 7 to 12 mph range by midday. There will likely be some shallow patches of light fog around tonight, but at the this point the potential to affect specific TAF sites is low enough to not mention in the forecast. /50/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1010 AM CST Wed Dec 9 2020/ UPDATE...Looking for another big warmup into the afternoon today after a seasonably chilly start. Our 12Z SHV sounding looked similar to the one from 24 hours ago, featuring a huge low level inversion which should efficiently mix out to result in highs in the low to mid 70s. RH values will drop off dramatically over the next several hours as we mix, but light winds should keep fire concerns low. Diurnal ranges could potentially exceed 40 degrees today in many spots across the Arklatex, which is not an easy feat sans frontal passage. The prior forecast was on track for today and this update only represents minor tweaks to match up better with morning observational trends. /50/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CST Wed Dec 9 2020/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/ Northerly flow aloft to continue to maintain mostly clear skies across the ArkLaTex today. Upper-level flow to become more zonal tonight followed by southwest by Thursday afternoon. At the surface, southwest winds around 5 mph to prevail today, increasing to up to 10 mph on Thursday as surface high pressure shifts east. A gradual warming trend to continue through the short term period with highs today forecast to climb into the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Trended slightly warmer than guidance on temps today and Thursday based on observed temps biasing higher than forecast over the past several days. Otherwise lows tonight to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s with highs on Thursday in the low to mid 70s. /05/ LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday Night/ Starting 11/00z...Mild and above normal temperatures will continue across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. An upper level trough and associated cold front will begin to push into the area Thursday night. As such, cloud cover will begin to increase during the overnight hours with most of the area waking up to cloudy skies Friday morning. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will begin working into the western portion of the forecast area early Friday morning, becoming more widespread across the area around noon Friday. Convection will linger into early Saturday morning before diminishing for most of the area, the exception will be across our far southeast zones where some model solutions have the cold front stalling or slowing its progression. As per the previous discussion, once we move past Saturday the forecast becomes more complex and uncertain. The ECMWF is indicating a second upper level trough diving southeast from the Rockies and across the Southern Plains late in the weekend. The main concern with this system will be how much moisture it would encounter when it reaches the area. Nonetheless, have handled it with following, for the most part, what the NBM put out. Should this be the case, precipitation will begin across our southern zones early Sunday morning, becoming more widespread across the area by Sunday afternoon and into the evening before moving out Sunday night into Monday morning. No matter the solution, one thing I am more confident about is that Friday will be the "warmest" day of the long term forecast with highs generally in the 60s across the area. Beyond that, below normal temperatures settle into the region through next Tuesday night. 33 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 43 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 71 41 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 73 37 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 72 41 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 72 40 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 75 46 74 57 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 76 42 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 77 44 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 50/05/33