208 
FXUS61 KPBZ 091703
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1203 PM EST Wed Dec 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Light precipitation with no accumulation north and northeast of 
Pittsburgh will be followed by dry conditions and a warming trend 
through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Very light and patchy precipitation will be possible mainly north 
and east of Pittsburgh today with a crossing shortwave trough. No 
snow accumulation is expected. This afternoon any precipitation 
should transition to light drizzle from northwest to southeast as 
drier air moves in at mid/upper levels (eliminating any "seeds" in a 
seeder/feeder situation) and the saturated BL is too warm -5C at it's
coldest across the forecast area) for to support snow. These cloud
top temperatures are currently being observed upstream.  Overnight 
patchy precipitation will gradually diminish as inversions lower 
under increasing subsidence. Included the mention of freezing drizzle
north of I-80 overnight where drizzle would still be possible and 
sfc temperatures drop below freezing. Do not anticipate any issues as
precipitation should be very spotty. 

Fog will be possible overnight over eastern Ohio with a clearing sky
and favorable hydrolapse.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging will result in dry conditions Thursday and Friday with
temperatures warming to around 10 degrees above normal by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain chances increase on Saturday as the next low pressure system
tracks northeast out of the midwest. Latest model consensus shows 
the best chance for precipitation overnight Saturday and Sunday 
morning with the passage of the associated cold front. Precipitation 
chances continue into Monday morning with a changeover to snow with 
the passage of the upper trough...lingering into Tuesday along the 
I-80 corridor and in the ridges under cold northwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR cigs will persist with cool NW flow persisting in the wake of a
shortwave. Rising pressure heights and sfc ridging will attempt to
clear cigs from SW to NE, but moisture trapped beneath a subsidence
inversion will be fairly stubborn and aided by weak moist advection
within a SW sfc wind.

Potential for fog to develop across eastern OH, impacting ZZV,
overnight due to a clearing sky, light wind, and slight sfc moisture
improvements.  

VFR conditions will slowly return through the day Thursday for all
sites amid upper ridging and sfc high pressure.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely again this weekend as low pressure brings a
round of rain followed by a round of light snow.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$