041 FXUS63 KABR 090508 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1108 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Forecast in fine shape so no major changes expected. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 The forecast challenge is temperature. Currently, there is a steady stream of sct-bkn coverage cirrus clouds over the region. Winds are generally out of the west or northwest, and there is some breeziness to the winds mainly out across the Missouri River valley region of the CWA. Temperatures have been warming this afternoon through the 40s and 50s. By the end of heating today, a few locations are probably at or just slightly above a reading of 60 degrees. Another mild night is in store for the region while these cirrus clouds are around. Forecast projections are for this mid/upper level moisture to eventually clear the region by late tomorrow morning, and while surface/boundary layer winds overnight may cling to some semblance of westerly component direction, by the end of the day Wednesday, winds should begin to respond to approaching/deepening surface low pressure out across northeast Wyoming/far western South Dakota by switching around to a more southerly or south- southeasterly direction late in the day. Certainly seems like there is a low level thermal advection pattern change setting up Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the CWA, with this recent prolonged period of low level WAA being replaced by CAA as a surface trof/wind shift moves across the CWA turning the winds around to the north by the end of the Wednesday night forecast period. There's no precipitation associated with this wind shift, though. The dry forecast continues. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 The long term portion of the forecast will feature at or above normal temperatures, along with dry conditions. The period begins on Thursday with a cold front passing through the region, bringing breezy northwesterly winds with gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible. While the front will pass through the CWA dry, it will bring colder temperatures with 925 mb temps dropping into the single digits below zero on Friday. While these temps may appear cold, -5C at 925 mb is considered normal for December. A surface high pressure sliding southward across the area on Saturday will bring slightly colder temperatures with highs reaching the mid 20s, to the low 30s. These readings are near to above normal. Sunday through Tuesday appears to feature a progressive weather pattern with a few shortwaves passing through the region. Confidence with timing and placement with these storm systems is low at this time. While operational runs of the GFS and Canadian suggest light accumulating snow early next week, the blend of models highlights a dry forecast for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1107 PM CST Tue Dec 8 2020 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR skies/vsbys are expected through Wednesday regionwide. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TDK SHORT TERM...Dorn LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...TDK