286 FXUS63 KLMK 082323 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 623 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 249 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 A thin stratus deck continues to plague the region at this hour, although it is showing some recent signs of beginning to waver. Most notably, visible satellite imagery shows the western edge steadily eroding across the lower Ohio and Wabash River Valleys in response to a 925 thermal axis beginning to nudge into the area. If trends continue, some gradual clearing could work into our west in the next couple of hours, albeit around or just before sunset. As a result, temperatures aren't going to really go any farther today and most highs will be confined to the mid and upper 30s with a few spots in the low 40s. As we go into the evening and overnight, do expect a gradual scattering out of the low clouds as low level warm advection continues across the area, however some upper clouds will stream over the area associated with a nice upper jet streak. The end result will be variable cloudiness. In addition to the clouds, a steady SSW wind expected to pick up. These two factors should keep a pretty small range between this afternoon's highs and overnight lows. Most spots should only drop around 5 to 10 degrees, which will yield upper 20s and low 30s for most spots. Did want to mention that fog formation should be limited by the steady surface winds and variable upper cloudiness, however the fact that we didn't mix the afternoon BL at all, and any evening clearing before the better winds arrive could briefly yield some patchy valley fog. Something to at least monitor. We'll keep some variable upper clouds around for Wednesday, but overall some sunshine should prevail. A big change arrives with temps around 15 to 20 degrees warmer thanks to low level thickness rises and a steady SW surface wind. Low to mid 50s is a good bet for highs over most of our area, but it isn't completely out of the question that our far SW could touch 60. .Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Warming trend continues into the long term as an upper level ridge approaches and passes through the region on Thursday. High temperatures should easily climb into the mid and upper 50s while a few urban areas could briefly hit 60. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week as modest southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front aids in advecting in warmer temperatures and low to mid level moisture. Highs Friday will likely climb into the low 60s for many. Rain showers and even a few rumbles of thunder will be possible ahead of the front on Saturday. Low level wind profiles will be strong, so it could be a bit breezy at the surface ahead of the front if we get a break in the rain and some clearing. Instability looks very meager to non-existent given low Td's and marginal lapse rates, so not anticipating a severe weather threat. Long range guidance begins to diverge on post-frontal solutions Sunday into early next week. Some solutions suggest high pressure building in from the west and resulting in mostly dry/cool conditions through early next week. Other solutions suggest a second low developing in the Gulf and being drawn northward into the base of a large scale trough in the southeastern US. Wrap-around moisture associated with that low in this scenario could persist into Monday. For now, will go with blended model output and keep PoP chances low at the end of the forecast period. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 PM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 Low stratus deck finally showing signs of giving up as warm air pushes in from the west. Expect lower cigs at LEX/HNB to go VFR in the next few hours, if not right at 00Z for HNB. Forecast low-level moisture profile does show potential for some resurgence by daybreak, mainly in the SDF/LEX corridor and only in the morning hours. Any brief ceilings will be right near that 2 kft threshold in the MVFR range. Skies should clear out the rest of the day. Winds will pick up from the southwest and could gust in the 15-20 knot range in the late morning to mid afternoon hours. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...BJS Long Term...DM Aviation...RJS