244 FXUS61 KRLX 080550 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1250 AM EST Tue Dec 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow showers in and near the mountains early this morning. Becoming dry with temperatures moderating for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 630 PM Monday... Went ahead and increased coverage of pops for a few hours as some locations are receiving heavier snow showers than previously forecast. With that being said, overall predicted accumulations remain the same, as this affected mainly lowland areas, which should generally receive only a light dusting. As of 1240 PM Monday... A persistent northerly fetch across Lake Erie with an upstream connection to Lake Huron will continue to provide ample low level moisture in the form of a broken to overcast stratocumulus deck punctuated by scattered flurries. The cold air mass brought in under northerly flow is rather shallow with the top of the moist layer barely touching the minus 10C isotherm. Limited depth in the DGZ should serve to limit top end intensity of any surface heating driven, more intense snow showers this afternoon. Will see a strengthening north-northwesterly low level wind field this evening and through the overnight as northern stream energy digs into the base of the upper low currently stationed over central PA. This will yield increasing forced ascent against favorably oriented terrain in our mountains with increasing coverage of snow showers. Overall amounts in the mountains generally fall in the 1 to 3 inch range, with locally higher amounts possible in the most persistent bands and/or most favored windward slopes. Could also see some blowing and drifting snow in the mountains with wind gusts 30 to 40 mph through the late morning Tuesday. Elsewhere, amounts will generally be limited trace to half an inch, mainly east of US-19. Low level flow weakens and turns more westerly as the aforementioned northern stream energy rounds the base of the low Tuesday morning. This should bring an end to any lingering showers. Skies will take longer to clear, but should see at least a few breaks to sunshine over the western half of the forecast area by the afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will be quite chilly, mid 20s across the Lowlands with teens to lower 20s in the mountains. It will also be quite breezy in the mountains, especially late tonight into early Tuesday. This will yield wind chill values as low as -8F. With low level cloud cover likely in place, any warm-up Tuesday will be heavily weighted toward the afternoon hours. Would expect afternoon highs to struggle to make it much beyond 40F through the Lowlands and mid 20s in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 152 PM Monday... An expansive surface high south of the area will extend northward into the region through the middle of the week, which will promote dry conditions across the area through the short term period. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft at the start of the period will transition to more of a westerly flow by Thursday as an upper level ridge slides eastward across the eastern US. This will lead to increasing heights aloft with gradually warming temperatures each day. Thus, expecting highs to be right around normal on Wednesday and 5 degrees or more above normal by Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 152 PM Monday... An upper level trough across the Desert Southwest will shift to the northeast Thursday night, leading to the cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies during this time. This low pressure system is expected to track northeastward towards the Great Lakes by Saturday, driving a strong cold front towards our area as this occurs. Ahead of this system strengthening southwesterly flow should support very mild temperatures on Friday with some areas likely reaching 60 or even more in the afternoon. It will also be dry on Friday with our area well in the warm sector of this system and the associated cold front moving through the Mississippi Valley. However, precipitation chances will increase from west to east on Saturday as the cold front approaches the area. Currently have widespread chance/low likely PoPS across the region on Saturday as this frontal boundary pushes through. Cold air advection in the wake of the departing cold front should support a transition from rain showers to snow showers in the mountains Saturday night into Sunday and possibly a rain/snow mix at lower elevations. High pressure is expected to build in from the west late in the weekend and early next week and drier air filters into the area, but enough lingering moisture should remain Sunday night for a change over to snow showers across the area before precipitation tapers off. In addition, temperatures should return to normal values by Sunday as the colder air spreads into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1245 AM Tuesday... Light snow will continue early this morning in and along the western slopes of the mountains. Restrictions will generally be MVFR in snow, although brief IFR visibilities are possible. Outside of the snow, expect VFR or high MVFR. The snow showers will end later this morning. Clouds will gradually clear today. Expect VFR conditions Tuesday evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow ending could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 12/08/20 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/RG NEAR TERM...JP/SL SHORT TERM...RG LONG TERM...RG AVIATION...RPY