549 FXUS64 KLCH 080355 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 955 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020 .DISCUSSION... Sfc obs/satellite imagery show clear skies prevailing over the forecast area at this time as a dry nwrly flow aloft lingers while sfc high pressure continues building over the region. Along with the clear skies, sfc winds have decoupled which will help lead to a good radiative cooling night...expect temps down to the 30s for most of the forecast area overnight. Additionally, the cold temps and calm winds should allow for the formation of patchy fog over the colder nern zones prior to sunrise. Although the bulk of the inherited grids/zones are doing just fine at the moment, will be issuing an update to modify the cloud cover to better reflect going conditions. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020/ DISCUSSION... 08/00Z TAF Issuance. AVIATION... A dry airmass in place will maintain VFR/SKC conditions through the period. NW winds will become light and vrbl overnight, then back more W to SW Tues morning, with speeds around 6-7 KT or less. 24 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CST Mon Dec 7 2020/ DISCUSSION... A quiet and pleasant day to start the week with high pressure and CAA yielding sunny skies and afternoon highs about 5 degrees or so below climatological normals. Modest radiational cooling sets in overnight as clear skies are maintained and winds become light, so some areas of patchy frost in central Louisiana will be a possibility. A gradual warming trend is expected through the week, with return flow ushering moisture back in by Thursday. Quiet weather and clear skies continue through this period. By the Thursday/Friday time frame, an upper level low translating across the Desert Southwest begins to become absorbed in the longer wave trough digging into the central CONUS. At the moment, models seem to be in pretty good agreement on timing with an associated cold frontal boundary advancing through the region late Friday and into the early morning hours on Saturday. Shear profiles look decent through FROPA, but right now a lack of instability is evident, which should preclude a severe threat. Still something to keep an eye on should models hint at more instability working into the region in subsequent model cycles. Current forecast indicating roughly around 0.5 to 1.0 inches of QPF with the system, which seems reasonable. However, any embedded convection or a general slow down of the system could result in those amounts increasing a bit. Models diverge a bit on what to expect after the front, but in general indicate the front will likely stall somewhere in the Gulf while the upper trough remains sluggish to lift from the east CONUS. Given a good bit of uncertainty for this part of the forecast, opted to just remain with a general model blend and trim back PoPs which will largely be dependent on the aforementioned features. 50 MARINE... Offshore flow will continue to diminish in magnitude this evening, becoming fairly light around 5 to 10 kts overnight. High pressure will dominate the forecast through mid-week with fairly light westerly winds gradually shifting onshore toward the latter half of the week as the next frontal boundary approaches Friday into Saturday. These onshore winds will be a bit more moderate Friday and Saturday ahead of the front. Showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility along with the aforementioned frontal boundary, with offshore winds once again developing in its wake. 50 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 34 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 41 64 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 39 63 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 40 65 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$