257 FXUS65 KBYZ 062022 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 122 PM MST Sun Dec 6 2020 .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday night... High pressure ridging will hold firm for a couple more days across the forecast area. This will result in sunny skies and well above normal temperatures. The only impacts through the short term will be winds, with the strongest winds across the Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills Monday night through Tuesday night. Surface pressure gradients will tighten in a southwest-northeast orientation tonight continuing through Tuesday night. This orientation is neither the preferred set-up for Livingston nor the Big Timber to Harlowton areas. It will still be conducive for gusty west winds 35 to 45 mph from Big Timber through Harlowton and maybe higher so this will need monitored with future guidance. However, the gradient will be tight enough and flatten just a bit toward a north/south orientation to allow for the good possibility of advisory winds for the Livingston and Nye areas late Monday into Tuesday evening. As a result, wind speeds were increased for this time frame for the Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills. A cold front will move across the forecast area Tuesday night which is expected to shut off the winds for the foothills. Temperatures will be well above normal the next couple of days with middle to upper 50s Monday and upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday. Record highs will be possible for Monday at Livingston, Billings, Miles City, and Sheridan. Hooley Wednesday through Sunday... The extended forecast period continues to look cooler,with temperatures around seasonal average, and somewhat unsettled. A cold front crosses the region Wednesday, with some entrenched Pacific moisture to bring rain and snow across the area by Wednesday evening, turning to snow Wednesday night and into Thursday. Broad troughiness takes over across the region, as an upper level ridge builds off the west coast. A stronger, southern piece of energy over the Great Basin looks more active, and appears to bring Gulf moisture into play by Thursday. Influx of moisture becomes more pronounced Thursday night as an upper low cuts off and shifts north into southwest South Dakota. This should bring wrap around precip in the area into Friday night, and lingering in the east into early Saturday morning. Current models runs indicate this could result in a reasonably long upslope snow event for east facing slopes, with collocated surface low in place, while previous runs indicated more of a overrunning type persistent light snow event. We will continue to watch this system very closely, as minor changes could cause drastic changes to impacts across the region. The forecast becomes more uncertain to end the period, as models differ on how to handle the ridge in the west. Gilstad && .AVIATION... High pressure maintaining clear skies and VFR over the region with gusty winds along favored locations near the foothills. borsum/Gilstad && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 029/059 035/062 036/052 030/041 023/035 021/035 022/040 00/U 00/N 01/B 22/O 22/S 21/B 11/B LVM 026/057 033/058 033/049 028/039 021/033 017/033 021/040 00/N 00/N 01/N 32/O 22/S 21/N 11/N HDN 023/061 027/063 030/054 027/042 021/037 017/037 017/041 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/O 23/O 21/B 11/B MLS 026/057 031/062 031/050 027/039 021/034 019/034 018/037 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/O 22/S 21/B 11/B 4BQ 026/060 031/064 031/054 027/040 021/034 017/034 017/039 00/U 00/B 00/U 12/S 22/S 21/B 01/B BHK 024/055 029/061 030/051 025/037 019/033 016/032 016/035 00/U 00/B 00/U 12/S 12/S 21/B 00/B SHR 022/062 025/064 028/053 023/039 016/033 014/033 012/041 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/O 23/S 31/B 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings