908 FXUS62 KTAE 061730 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1230 PM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the day; however, increased cloudiness will gradually increase throughout the evening and overnight hours. Moisture is expected to increase from west to east, and by tonight widespread showers will overtake all terminals, and lead to MVFR and eventually IFR CIGs at all terminals. By mid-morning, most terminals recover to VFR conditions with ABY still remaining under MVFR conditions. By the end of the period; however, VFR conditions are expected once again. && .PREV DISCUSSION [1001 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Some changes are on the way over the next 24 hours as a well defined upper level low over Texas moves eastward. Practically, this system will not be very impactful with just light showers expected to overspread the area mainly during the overnight hours. The system has to overcome a lot of dry air ahead of it, which the 00z KTAE sounding shows well with a preciptable water value of only 0.41 inches and very dry air from around 500 mb down to the surface. The system is interesting from a verification standpoint as some of the PoP guidance is quite low, despite the expectation of a high PoP, low rain total event. The official forecast rain chances are above the NBM guidance and closer to other higher guidance with the expectation that the system is strong enough to overcome the dry air and will likely produce measurable rainfall (although quite light) for a large portion of the area tonight. We'll likely see a lot of rain aloft approaching from the west initially that will not all be reaching the ground, but eventually it will tonight as the atmosphere gradually moistens. Total rainfall amounts are expected to be around a tenth of an inch or less for most locations. High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]... A shortwave will swing down from the Ohio Valley through the mid- Atlantic states Monday. As this shortwave moves east, another impulse will drop southward from the Upper Midwest into the southeast CONUS Monday night through Tuesday. These two features will effectively further amplify the long wave trough down the Atlantic seaboard and bring a re-enforcement of colder and drier air to our forecast area. Monday's high temps will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s and in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday. Lows Monday night will be in the lower to mid 30s with some of the normally colder locations at or just below freezing. Areas of frost are also possible mainly across our GA and AL zones and interior portions of the Florida Panhandle. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... Upper troughing will continue through Wednesday followed by deep layer ridging moving in from the west Thursday through Friday. Over the weekend, a broad upper trough and associated cold front will move into and across our area bringing with it our next chance for rain. Lows will gradually moderate from the 30s Tuesday night to the 50s by next weekend. Highs in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday and around 70 to lower 70s Friday through Sunday. Areas of frost will be possible Tuesday night. .MARINE... Northerly winds will continue through the week with winds and seas increasing to cautionary levels Monday through Monday night as a cold front pushes through the local waters. .FIRE WEATHER... Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... Rain chances return to the area late today through Monday morning ahead of a cold front. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than a quarter of an inch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 49 62 35 56 35 / 70 10 0 0 0 Panama City 49 61 38 58 41 / 80 10 0 0 0 Dothan 43 55 32 54 34 / 70 10 0 0 0 Albany 46 57 33 54 33 / 60 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 49 62 34 54 32 / 60 20 0 0 0 Cross City 51 64 36 57 33 / 70 40 0 0 0 Apalachicola 50 62 38 57 40 / 70 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Barry LONG TERM...Barry AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...Barry FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Barry