198 FXUS61 KBGM 012000 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 300 PM EST Tue Dec 1 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered light rain showers change over to snow the rest of today, then snow showers linger through Wednesday with some lake enhancement in northern Oneida county and the hills southeast of Syracuse. Dry weather returns for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 300 PM Update... The upper level low continues to spin over the area. Moisture wrapping around the system, and cooler south/southwesterly flow, continues to touch off showers across our area. Across the higher elevations, some snow has already begun to mix in. While earlier, showers had been confined mainly to areas west of I-81, a shift over to southwesterly flow has allowed more of the shower activity to shift to the east. However, rain rates remain light, with totals generally below a quarter of an inch the rest of the day. Temperatures hover in the upper 30s to lower 40s, but have already started to drop back a couple degrees this afternoon in the western Twin Tiers. This should allow a gradual transition over to snow across our southwestern zones, then the rest of the area should see lingering showers change over to snow showers after 0Z. Apart from shower activity, expect somewhat breezy conditions to continue for the rest of the day, with some gusts up to around 20 mph especially across the higher elevations before winds fall back slightly into the evening. Snow showers continue through the night, and temperatures aloft should cool sufficiently to allow for some lake enhancement to the east and northeast of Erie and Ontario. Thus, our best precip chances will continue to be across our western zones. Light accumulations are possible area-wide overnight, but totals in excess of an inch are possible overnight across the higher elevations of central NY as well as some of the ridges in northeast PA. Otherwise, expect overnight lows to quickly drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. The upper level low continues to move northeast of the area into Wednesday, and we become increasingly cut off from the moisture source from south to north while high pressure builds in from the south. This will cause our best chances for lingering snow showers to migrate northward, and by Wednesday evening, snow showers will be largely confined to areas along and north of the Thruway due to lake enhancement/lake effect. From the early hours of Wednesday through Wednesday evening, totals up to 1 to 3 inches are possible across most of the higher elevations of central NY, with the highest totals up to 3 to 5 and even to near 6 inches in far north/northwestern Oneida county. While these snow totals are fairly high, they are over a fairly long period of time with no one period looking to see particularly heavy snow. So, will continue to mention these higher totals in the HWO but am not planning to upgrade to an advisory. Lighter totals below an inch would be expected across the rest of the forecast area. Otherwise, expect another breezy day Wednesday as westerly winds at around 10 to 15 mph gust up to around 20 mph once more, especially across the hilltops. Temperatures peak in the 30s, possibly close to 40F in the Wyoming valley. Expect temperatures to fall back into the mid to upper 20s Wednesday night, while increasingly drier air allows for more clearing from south to north. Stray lake showers largely wind down by early Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Lake enhanced/lake effect snow showers begin to taper off Wednesday night as the low pressure system moves further north into Canada and the atmosphere dries out. Greatest chance for lingering snow showers will be along and north of the NY Thruway corridor. Additional snowfall amounts will be light, mainly less than a half inch. Otherwise, expecting gradual clearing from south to north as the night progresses, with clouds lingering where there are still some snow showers around. Lows will likely be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. High pressure builds into the area for Thursday, providing dry weather along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will likely be in the 40s across the majority of the area. Clouds increase from west to east Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave trough and cold front approaches the area. This will bring a chance for some rain and snow showers by Friday, especially in Central NY. Some additional rain and snow showers are possible Friday night. Highs on Friday will likely be in the 40s, with lows Thursday and Friday nights in the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Quite a bit of uncertainty exists for the long term forecast. Some models, such as the 00Z ECMWF show the area under the influence of a high pressure system with mainly dry weather for the weekend. Meanwhile, other model solutions develop an area of low pressure across the Southeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic regions and track it northeastward up the east coast. For now, went with the NBM (National Blend of Models) for the PoPs due to the high degree of uncertainty, which resulted in a low chance for rain and snow showers Saturday night through Sunday. Also used the NBM for temperatures, which resulted in highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Saturday and Sunday. Another shortwave may bring additional rain and snow showers for the beginning of next week, although this is also highly uncertain being this far out. Cooler temperatures are expected by the beginning of next week with highs in the lower to mid 30s and lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Light rain showers continue across much of the area this afternoon, though this hasn't impacted visibility much at all across any of our terminals. We continue to see mainly MVFR to fuel alternate ceilings across all terminals, and these lower ceilings hang on pretty much through the rest of the forecast period. Into the night, a change over to a rain/snow mix and finally snow is expected in lingering showers. This may lead to greater visibility restrictions, even down to IFR, and particularly at KRME and KSYR where we may start to see some lake enhancement into early Wednesday. Lingering snow showers will largely be confined to KSYR and KRME into the daytime hours of Wednesday as flow starts to shift primarily to the west. Southerly winds are turning breezy this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 kts across most of the area. Winds come in mainly at 8 to 12 kts through the night, then some gusts up to 20 kts will be possible again during the day Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday...Lake enhanced snow showers and associated occasional restrictions for KSYR-KRME; possibly KITH- KBGM-KELM at times. Mainly VFR KAVP. Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday and Sunday...Restrictions possible in rain and snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HLC NEAR TERM...HLC SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...HLC