135 FXUS63 KIND 010433 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1133 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 Snow chances continue tonight and will exit to the E/NE during the overnight along with the low pressure system. Cold temperatures continue Tuesday but near normal temps return for the rest of the week. Ridging will help keep the rest of the week dry, but another low will return precipitation chances for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/... Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 For the update...included some PoPs for the next few hours in all but the westernmost parts of the forecast area based on radar loop and trends. Not much will be seen in the way of accumulation, but scattered light snow showers will continue for the next few hours, some of them enhanced by lake effect. A tight pressure gradient with low pressure center slowly moving northeast away from the area will keep northwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph in place through the overnight hours, and temperatures dropping into the 20s will allow untreated roads to freeze. Issued an SPS to this effect to heighten awareness especially for the morning commute. Previous discussion follows... Light snow will continue into tonight across east central Indiana with some scattered to isolated snow across other parts of central Indiana. The low will keep slowly tracking east to northeastward tonight, with the snow exiting with it. The northerly to northwesterly winds have allowed for a skinny lake effect snow band to reach the central to southern part of the state this afternoon. This band looks persist into early tonight, and it will track E to NE, following the periphery of the backside of the low. Snow could become a little heavier at times under this band due to enhanced moisture and energy coming from Lake Michigan, but as it will keep shifting NE, snow accumulations will remain relatively low. By the early morning hours, total snowfall totals across the area will range from around a tenth to quarter of an inch across the west and central counties, up to 1 to a little over 2 inches in the NE counties. Temperatures will continue dropping overnight as the cold air fully settles in behind the upper trough; lows down to the mid 20s. Tight pressure gradients on the back side of the low remain overhead, thus breezy conditions will continue tonight. Expect sustained winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. These winds will slowly diminish towards sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued at 359 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 By the start of the short term, the center of the low pressure system will have moved off to Pennsylvania and New York, but some lingering snow is possible Tuesday morning for the NE counties of the forecast area. This continued moisture is coming from moisture wrapping around the back side of the low, as well as some lake effect snow coming off of Lake Michigan due to northerly to northwesterly winds over the lake pulling snow into the central part of the state. Ridging behind this system will bring in drier air and subsidence which will clear out clouds through the day Tuesday. Mostly clear skies will continue through Wednesday. Temperature wise, Tuesday will be cold with the continuation of NW flow, but Wednesday will warm to near normal as more westerly to southerly flow moves in on the back side of the ridge. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday Night Through Monday)... Issued at 232 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 Models continue to differ on how an upper level low will lift out of the Plains early in the long term period. At any rate, deep moisture looks limited with better moisture off to the south. Thus will go dry or very low PoPs in the far south on Thursday. The next feature that could bring some light precipitation is a cold front/surface trough that will move through on Saturday. Moisture will again be a problem, so will only have some very low PoPs Saturday into Saturday night. An upper trough will dig into the area on Sunday into Sunday night. Went dry for now with this, but may have to add some PoPs later as colder air moving in might be able to squeeze out a little precipitation. Temperatures will remain near normal to a little below normal for the most part. Cooler than normal readings may move in behind the upper trough Sunday night into Monday. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 010600z TAF issuance/... Issued at 1127 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 IMPACTS: -Winds from 290 to 320 with gusts of 18 to 27+ kts. Higher end of gusts will drop in speed to around 22 kts after 9z. -MVFR ceilings, rising to VFR from west to east. Could start to come to VFR soon at KLAF and KHUF, with KBMG and KIND after 9z. -Snow showers could continue to impact the sites for the next couple hours but no accumulation expected. May also see a brief period of freezing drizzle. DISCUSSION: Low pressure pulling off to the northeast will keep lower ceilings and chances for snow or freezing drizzle in the forecast tonight for at least the next few hours. Strong northwesterly wind gusts will decrease to 18 to 22 kts over the next few hours as well. CONFIDENCE: High confidence in gusty northwesterly winds through the period. Medium confidence in MVFR ceilings for parts of the next 6 hours, with some potential for VFR especially west. Low confidence in the timing of VFR at KBMG and KIND. Low confidence in any lower visibilities occurring at the sites. Low confidence in any freezing drizzle occurring. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KH/CP NEAR TERM...KH/CP SHORT TERM...KH LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...CP