382 FXUS65 KTFX 280840 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 140 AM MST Sat Nov 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Strong south to west winds will continue through the day today ahead of a southward advancing cold front, which will eventually stall along the Central Montana mountains this evening. Light precipitation is expected over the Continental Divide through much of the day, with light precipitation also being possible along and behind the cold front across Central Montana this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday...primary forecast concern throughout the period will be winds each and every day, especially today across portions of Central and North Central Montana where a High Wind Warning remains in effect until 22z (3pm Saturday). Fast moving shortwave within zonal flow will slide east across the Northern Rockies and Southern Canada this morning, with the best upper level dynamics generally remaining north of the region and over Southern Alberta. At the surface, low pressure over South Central Alberta early this morning will quickly move east southeast to Southern Manitoba by this afternoon, with a trailing cold front pushing south and across North Central and into Central Montana from late this morning and through the afternoon hours. Ahead of this cold front, a strong pressure gradient will continue to reside in lee of the Rocky Mountain Front and along the Central and Southwest Montana mountains. This strong pressure gradient combined with cross barrier winds of 40-80kts across most of the CWA (strongest winds of 60-80kts will remain over North Central and northern portions of Central Montana) will lead to continued strong and gusty surface winds through the afternoon hours today. At this time the best chance of seeing high wind criteria wind speeds and gusts within the on-going High Wind Warning will be during the morning hours when the pressure gradient and potential for mountain waves (due to favorable upper level thermal profiles) will be the strongest/highest. It should also be noted that isolated near-criteria wind speeds and gusts could occur in some of the north-south orientated valleys of Southwest Montana today, especially over Norris Hill. While precipitation chances are expected to remain over the Rocky Mountain Front through much of the day thanks to upslope conditions from the overall zonal upper level pattern, some light precipitation can not be ruled out in the upslope regions of Central Montana this afternoon/evening along and behind the passing cold front. Winds are expected to decrease quickly this evening as upper level ridging build back in over the Northern Rockies and surface high pressure slides south along the Continental Divide. Lee side surface trough will begin to sharpen once again during the day on Sunday as the next upper level shortwave begins to approach the Pacific Northwest Coast, which will lead to increasing winds in wind prone areas. Winds will continue to remain breezy into the day on Monday as the aforementioned next shortwave approaches the Northern Rockies, with the potential for possibly another high wind event across portions of North Central Montana during the day on Monday. As the shortwave crosses the region Monday night and through the day on Tuesday expect another chance for light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, especially over the mountains and in northern facing upslope region of Central Montana. - Moldan Tuesday night through next Saturday...overall quite and dry conditions are expected as large scale ridging looks to develop over much of the Western CONUS. It does appear that a period of strong winds could develop once again during the Thursday through Friday timeframe, but confidence in speeds and timing is low at this time. High temperatures through the remainder of the work week and into the start of next week look to be near climatological norms. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 1015 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020 (28/06Z TAF period) While VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the 2806/2906 TAF period, mountains will be obscured, especially along the Continental Divide and in areas of precipitation from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. Primary concern over the next 12 to 18 hours will be continued low level wind shear over most of the Central and North Central Montanan terminals, along with mountain wave turbulence in lee of the Rocky Mountain Front. Surface wind gusts across Central and North Central Montana are expected to gust upwards of 25-50kts through Saturday afternoon before slowly decreasing. - Moldan No TAF at KWYS until airport operations resume next spring. Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 47 24 46 29 / 10 20 0 0 CTB 42 20 42 27 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 44 21 41 18 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 41 13 39 10 / 10 10 0 0 WYS 26 -6 30 -3 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 39 12 36 13 / 10 10 0 0 HVR 43 14 38 24 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 46 20 44 23 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST this afternoon Blaine... Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls