674 
FXUS65 KFGZ 271140
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
440 AM MST Fri Nov 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system and associated areas of mainly 
light snow showers will push eastward through the day. Warmer and 
dry weather will return for the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper low near KPAN (Payson) this morning will move
through northern Gila county and into extreme southern Apache county 
this afternoon. The low will be in New Mexico by early this evening.

Showers associated with the low have been sparse so far overnight. 
However, shower activity is starting to appear more organized as the 
low heads east, aided by a moisture tap ahead of the cold front, as 
seen on current IR imagery.

Additionally, as we head into the afternoon, some convective snow 
showers are expected in Apache county, with some banded and isolated 
moderate precipitation amounts possible as a result.

In general, any remaining QPF amounts will be just a few hundredths. 
But, as mentioned above, isolated locations in southern Navajo and 
Apache counties may see liquid amounts approaching 0.25 inches 
today, resulting in a few inches of snow.

Snow levels are fairly low, aided by an initial dry boundary layer. 
Snow will be seen as low as 4000 feet for the duration of the event.

Gusty east and northeast winds have developed overnight, these will 
continue through the day, slowly tapering off tonight and Saturday.

Expect high pressure this weekend and into early next week, for a 
warming trend. Models still differ in the possibility of another low 
pressure system moving out of the northern stream and potentially 
cutting off by the middle or latter parts of next week. Details and 
confidence are not great for now, the best bet is more northerly 
winds and cooling trend toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect scattered to numerous rain 
and snow showers through 00Z Sat, in an area east of a line from 
KPRC-KGCN, then south of the line from KGCN to the 4-Corners. The 
most coverage to be in Apache county. MVFR/IFR visibilities and 
ceilings in the heaviest showers. 

Clearing with VFR develops across western AZ after 18Z and reaches 
the AZ / NM line at 00Z Sat. Surface winds N-NE 10-20kts. Aviation 
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...An upper level low will move across Northern Arizona 
today. Expect scattered rain and show showers, with mainly light 
precipitation accumulations.  Showers will clear from west to east 
this afternoon. A warming trend begins Saturday, with mostly clear 
skies.

Sunday through Tuesday...Light winds Sunday and Monday, becoming 
breezy north winds Tuesday. Temperatures will be near normal.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff