392 FXUS62 KMFL 262317 AAA AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 617 PM EST Thu Nov 26 2020 .Aviation... The winds will be light and variable tonight before going easterly at 5 to 10 knots on Friday. The only exception is at KAPF where the winds will become westerly after 20Z Friday due to a west coast sea breeze. The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR along with dry conditions at all of the TAF sites. && .AVIATION...54/BNB .Prev Discussion... /issued 303 PM EST Thu Nov 26 2020/ ..NICE WEATHER CONTINUING FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND... ..POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT... ..COLDER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... Short Term (Rest of Today through Friday)... A ridge of high pressure over the region will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida bringing mainly dry conditions to the area for the rest of the day. East to southeasterly flow will continue as well. A brief shower cannot be ruled out mainly over the Atlantic waters for the rest of today. This ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the region through tonight and into Friday allowing for the dry conditions to continue. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 60s across the northwestern interior to the lower 70s across the east coast metro areas. High temperatures on Friday will rise into the lower 80s across the region. Long Term... Thanksgiving weekend... The long range models are now more in line with a mid to upper level low moving from the southwestern United States eastward across Southeastern United States this weekend allowing for a surface low to develop in the Northwest gulf and move east northeast into the Southeastern United States. This in turn weaken and push the ridge of high pressure southward from the Western Atlantic waters into the Bahamas. This weather pattern will keep South Florida mainly dry with a light easterly wind flow. However, cannot rule out a isolated light shower for the east coast metro areas and the Adjacent Atlantic waters through the weekend. There could also be some patchy fog over the areas around Lake Okeechobee late Friday night into early Saturday morning and again late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, due to the low level moisture slowly increasing ahead of the cold front early next week. Therefore, patchy fog wording has been added for the above areas for Friday night and again Saturday night. Early To Middle of Next Week... The ridge of high pressure will wash out early next week over the Bahamas, as the mid to upper level low along with the surface low moves northeast from the Southeastern United States into the Northeastern United States. This in turn will allow for a strong cold front associated with the surface low to move southward and through South Florida Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Ahead of the strong cold front the winds will be south southwest over South Florida bringing in tropical moisture from the Caribbean Sea which will allow for scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms. A few of the storms could even become strong over the region Monday afternoon into the early evening hours, due to a mid to upper level jet of 100 to 110 knots moving through Central Florid and a low level jet of 30 to 50 knots moving over South Florida. At this time, it looks like the primary threats from the strong storms will be mainly gusty winds due to the unidirectional shear. Will continue to monitor the latest forecast models on the possibility of strong storms on Monday over the region. Behind the strong cold front, high pressure will settle in over the Florida Peninsula from the north. This will allow for the colder air to the north to work into South Florida for the middle of next week. Highs will be in the 60s, except around 70 east coast metro areas with lows getting down into the 40s over the northern interior areas to the 50s over the metro areas for middle of next week. Late Next Week... The long range models are splitting for late next week. The ECMWF is showing another low to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and move northeast across Northern Florida pushing another cold front southward through South Florida allowing for tropical moisture to work back into the region from the south leading to possible showers and even a few thunderstorms. However, the GFS is only showing a reinforcement cold front to move down the Sunshine State and through South Florida with little moisture associated with the front. Therefore, a few showers will be added for late next week over South Florida until the long range models come more in line with each other. Marine... A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Atlantic and Gulf waters through the weekend. With a light to moderate east to southeasterly flow, benign boating conditions will persist during this time frame. On Monday, a strong cold front will be approaching and moving through the local waters. Out ahead of the front, there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, winds will shift to a more northerly direction which could cause seas to build over the local waters as the middle of next week approaches. Beach Forecast... The rip current risk will remain elevated across the Atlantic Coast Beaches through this evening with a moderate east to southeasterly flow in place. As the wind flow begins to relax, the risk of rip currents will begin to decrease into Friday and should continue to decrease through the Thanksgiving weekend across the Atlantic Coast Beaches && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... West Palm Beach 69 81 68 81 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 71 82 71 82 / 10 10 10 10 Miami 71 82 70 83 / 10 10 10 10 Naples 66 83 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && Marine...55/CWC Aviation...54/BNB Beach Forecast...55/CWC Short Term...55/CWC Long Term...54/BNB