487 
FXUS63 KEAX 251952
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
152 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 153 PM CST WED NOV 25 2020

The main forecast challenge in the short term will revolve around 
clearing tonight and any resulting fog that may develop. Tonight, a 
surface ridge of high pressure will quickly move through the area. A 
expansive stratus deck that extends back to central Kansas has been 
slowly progressing east however as we lose the daylight this 
clearing will slow. Still, clearing is expected from west to east 
after midnight. This clearing coupled with moist boundary layer 
and light winds may allow fog to develop especially over the 
western CWA. Fog is expected to be patchy at this time however, 
if clearing occurs, fog may become more dense particularly over 
the southwestern CWA. Any fog will burn off by mid-morning as a 
return to southerly flow and sunny skies will help temperatures 
rise into the 50s. Tomorrow evening into tomorrow night a cold 
front will move through the area. Modest CAA behind the front 
Friday will keep highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Another 
surface ridge of high pressure will move through the area Friday 
night dropping temperatures into the mid to upper 20s. However, 
this ridge will quickly slide south on Saturday again bringing a 
return to southerly flow aiding in highs rising into the low to 
mid 50s.

The only slight chance for precipitation this forecast period will 
come Saturday night into Sunday as a closed low slides across the 
Red River valley into Arkansas. Models keep the precipitation shield 
south of the area with the exception of the European model which is 
slightly further north and brings light precipitation across the 
extreme southern CWA. The trend has been to shift precipitation 
south so currently leaning towards dry conditions. However, as the 
low moves south of the area CAA will usher in cooler temperatures 
for Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Monday another upper 
level trough will dig through the area and with continued CAA highs 
will only reach the mid to upper 30s. Tuesday northerly flow aloft 
relaxes as high pressure builds in at the surface allow temperatures 
to moderate but remain below normal with highs in the low to mid 40s.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST WED NOV 25 2020

The last round of drizzle is mov thru the TAF sites at this time
with dry conds expected for the remainder of the TAF pd. 
Otrw...main concern will be for MVFR cigs thru 06Z. Sided with NAM
for a slower clrg as the deck is expansive back to the west into 
central KS and is only making slow progression eastward.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73