747 FXUS62 KFFC 250912 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 412 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 .SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... Current synoptic setup shows the forecast area in southwesterly flow situated between high pressure southeast of the area, centered over the southern tip of Florida, and a low pressure system northwest of the area near the KS/OK border. The associated surface low is expected to move northeast towards the Ohio Valley region through the day today, pushing a cold front towards the CWA. Moisture begins to move into northwestern Georgia this afternoon and continues to spread south and east as the cold front pushes into the area late tonight/early Thursday. Have gone with somewhat of a model blend for pops for this afternoon, bringing in likely pops across portions of northern Georgia later this evening before extending south and east. High temperatures for this afternoon are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s across the mountains with 60s and 70s elsewhere, around 8 to 12 degrees above average. Overnight temps are expected to stay fairly warm, in the 50s across the mountains with 50s and 60s across the rest of the area, due to the showers and increased cloud cover ahead of the frontal passage. Higher pops then continue through the metro early Thursday morning and then across central Georgia during the day on Thursday. Have included slight chance thunder in the overnight through Thursday evening time frame. At the current point in time, there looks to be a period from late this evening through Thursday morning where ingredients come together increasing the potential for severe weather. The mix of sufficient instability, decent lapse rates, and plenty of shear may provide a chance to see some stronger storms in this window, mainly across northwestern Georgia. The main threat with any stronger storms would be gusty winds. This lines up well with the Day 1 Outlook from SPC with northwest Georgia in a Marginal Risk for severe weather through Thursday morning. For the rest of Thursday, the upper level flow begins to shift to a more zonal flow and the front at the surface looks to elongate and stall somewhere across central Georgia, continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the day. Otherwise, high temperatures on Thursday are forecast to be fairly similar to today with 60s and 70s across the entire forecast area, 8 to 12 degrees above average. Reaves .LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/... Get ready for a roller coaster of a pattern over the next week or so as a progressive and amplified pattern takes ahold of the US. The extended begins with a split flow which will be key in the extended. A broad SW mid level flow streaming across the southern states runs atop a washed out frontal boundary over Southern GA, and a faster moving less amplified flow exists across the northern states. A strong shortwave diving into the SW States is forecast by all guidance to pinch off and become cutoff by Friday across the SW states. By Saturday it ejects out into the southern plains and becomes absorbed by a deepening trof within the northern stream over the central US. Slight variations in the evolution of the absorption of the low exist and will be key on how much rain we get across the state late Saturday through Sunday. The operational ECMWF is stronger and deeper with the system while the GFS is a bit weaker and further west when it becomes absorbed by the developing trof. In addition, the ECMWF is toting more moisture with PW's aoa 1.5 inches as upper low ejects NE across our region compared to aoa 1.25 with the GFS during the day Sunday. These small details in where and how the low absorbs into the developing trough will be key in the potential for wintry precip moving into Monday night and Tuesday AM...yes..I said it. The further east absorption of the cutoff low in the ECMWF allows for the main trof and associated low pressure to be centered closer to GA and the southern Appalachians. While the further West GFS solution keeps the center of the upper low further north over the Ohio valley and thus lower wintry precip chances across North GA. Model soundings do support some snow in the mountains on both models as 850mb temps are slated to be -9 deg C and the column below about 500mb is saturated late Monday night. Regardless of the solution that turns out to be more correct, models do agree on very cold start to December with the best chances for seeing some light snow in the North GA mountains Monday night. Stellman && AVIATION... 06Z Update... A mix of VFR/MVFR across the area now, with increasing clouds and MVFR cigs possible after about 8-9Z and IFR cigs at metro taf sites just before daybreak. MVFR cigs likely to continue through the day, but may break briefly in the afternoon before returning in the evening. Potential for SHRA increases this evening with more likely shra by 00Z at metro taf sites. Additional SHRA/TSRA w/ frontal passage likely just at the end of the taf cycle. Winds should be E/SE through much of the period at generally less than 10kts, shifting SW by the end of the period, early Thurs. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Low to medium confidence on overnight cigs. Medium to high confidence on all other elements. Reaves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 58 72 49 / 40 70 50 10 Atlanta 68 59 70 48 / 50 70 50 10 Blairsville 57 51 66 41 / 80 90 20 5 Cartersville 67 56 69 44 / 70 80 30 5 Columbus 75 63 75 55 / 40 60 50 10 Gainesville 60 55 69 48 / 60 80 40 5 Macon 76 61 76 53 / 20 50 40 20 Rome 67 54 69 42 / 70 80 20 5 Peachtree City 71 59 72 48 / 50 70 50 10 Vidalia 77 60 78 61 / 10 20 30 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reaves LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...Reaves