437 FXUS65 KABQ 231550 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 850 AM MST Mon Nov 23 2020 .UPDATE... Currently extending the Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST for all but the Far/NE Highlands and Quay County based on latest obs/trends. Otherwise, forecast on track. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...505 AM MST Mon Nov 23 2020... .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE Widespread low clouds will continue to blanket most of the eastern half of New Mexico through much of the day with areas of mist and fog also impacting visibility at several locations. IFR to VLIFR conditions will be common there through the early afternoon. Low clouds have also expanded in the Rio Grande valley and central parts of the state where MVFR ceilings will be found through much of the morning. Showers are expected to expand over north central and parts of northwestern New Mexico later today with high elevation snow becoming more periodic tonight into early Tuesday morning. Mountain obscurations will be common, especially along the central mountain chain and the northern high peaks. Much of the lower elevation plains of eastern New Mexico will observe rising ceiling heights late this afternoon, and pinpointing the redevelopment, or lowering of ceilings late tonight will be tricky, as winds will strengthen before dawn Tuesday. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...307 AM MST Mon Nov 23 2020... .SYNOPSIS... The eastern plains will remain entrenched with low clouds, fog, and light rain and drizzle today and tonight. Valley rain and mountain snow also continues through the northwestern high terrain near Chama to Farmington, spreading over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains later today. Tuesday will see snow levels fall as precipitation tapers off. Strong winds will also impact much of the eastern plains, with peak gusts of 50 to 55mph focusing through Clines Corners and potentially lee of the Sacramento Mountains. Conditions clear out Wednesday and Thanksgiving with moderating temperatures. The next winter weather system still looks to arrive Friday, lasting through Saturday. This system has greater potential for lower snow levels, but with a relative lack of moisture. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... Southwesterlies aloft are beginning to increase as a longwave trough moves farther inland over the intermountain west. Winds at the surface have started to turn more southerly in much of the forecast area, a trend that will continue through the day. Surface dewpoints may lower a few degrees in far western zones, but most other areas will retain readings in the 30’s and low 40’s. This will make it difficult to erode away low clouds and fog in the eastern half of the state. The dense fog advisory will be extended to 9am, but a few zones may need to be extended even more by the next shift. Precipitation will remain stratiform and light or even drizzle through much of the early afternoon in these eastern zones. Showers will also attempt to expand northwestward and into the northern mountains today with high snow levels and a slim chance for some thunder. Windy conditions in the far northeastern zones have also warranted a wind advisory for today. Precipitation amounts will generally be light with an expected upward trend in precipitation rates tonight as better dynamics aloft arrive with the encroaching trough aloft. Snow levels will also lower tonight into Tuesday with increasing snow-liquid ratios as the best forcing overtakes the northern mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory will cover tonight and Tuesday’s modest accumulations for the northern mountains. The other concern for Tuesday will be strong winds as a stout mid level jet rounds the base of the upper trough, putting areas along and south of I-40 under a threat for gusts of 40 to 50 mph. LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... Conditions clear out by Wednesday with much of the western half of the state seeing moderating temperatures. A lee-side surface trough setting up through northeastern NM will bring breezy westerlies through east-central NM in the afternoon. Overall calm weather continues Thanksgiving, with the potential for the leading edge of a backdoor front to bring cooler conditions to far northeastern NM, including Clayton. This backdoor front makes it through the rest of the eastern plains Thursday night through Friday morning, dropping highs back below normal. Meanwhile, the next winter system will be digging southward through the inter-mountain west entering over western NM Friday. While there still exists model differences regarding strength and translation speed over NM, there is model agreement with this system being relatively moisture starved. Both the ECMWF and GFS show PWATs only increasing to ~0.30” at ABQ. While 700mb temperatures will be -6C to -8C and the aforementioned backdoor front likely having progressed westward through the central mountain chain as the core of the low moves overhead, this relative lack moisture should limit snowfall and overall precipitation potential with this system. WPC QPF seems to agree only showing up to 0.25” - 0.50” over the mountainous terrain Friday. The general cooling trend this week continues after this system exits with northerly flow setting up heading by Sunday. 52/24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Cloudy and showery conditions will gradually spread into north central and northwestern NM today with light rain/drizzle and fog being stubborn over eastern zones. Much of the precipitation amounts will be far too light to provide much relief to cured fuels today, but tonight a couple to a few inches of snow accumulation are expected over the high elevation's of the northern mountains through early Tuesday as the trough crosses. Strong and gusty winds will develop Tuesday, especially along and south of I-40 and dewpoints will begin declining in these areas into the afternoon. RH will remain slightly above critical thresholds Tuesday afternoon, but an elevated threat for critical conditions should be expected, especially given the dry fine fuel status. Warmer and more widespread drier conditions with breezy to locally windy conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday when humidity values drop back to the 15 to 25 percent range across much of the forecast area. Friday’s much cooler temperatures will then boost humidity values considerably. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for the following zones... NMZ227-230. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for the following zones... NMZ223-226-233-235>240. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday for the following zones... NMZ210-213. && $$