194 FXUS64 KMEG 202348 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 548 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 .UPDATE... See aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CST Fri Nov 20 2020/ DISCUSSION... Warmer and dry conditions will continue today as our weather pattern remains in the hands of the surface high pressure to our east. Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend. A surface high pressure continues to drift to the east with low pressure to our north with an associated cold front over Missouri to Oklahoma. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s through Saturday. Our next chance for showers will be on Sunday when a cold front pushes through the region. There are still some differences between the GFS and ECMWF in the strength of the front. Leaning more towards the ECMWF solution which has a bit of a faster frontal progression compared to the GFS. Not expecting a whole lot with these showers as QPF amounts will likely be around to below 1/2" for most. Showers will exit to the east overnight on Sunday leaving behind much cooler weather on Monday. We will see a day of dryness on Monday followed by additional showers possible on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The GFS is hinting a lot more QPF, as well as showers moving through earlier. This could bring not only showers by thunderstorms to the area. So far, still have PoPs of 20 to 30 by Wednesday but confidence is increasing on a wet Wednesday. Looks like we'll have a dry Thanksgiving on tap, with showers moving out by Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thanksgiving high temperatures will be in the lower 60s with lows in the lower 40s. Temperatures will be above normal through the upcoming weekend before returning to near normal to above normal by next week. SGW AVIATION... Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. The only exception may be at JBR where a brief period of MVFR cigs may be possible. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$