964 FXUS61 KCLE 201753 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1253 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will enter from the west today and dissipate over the Ohio River Valley tonight. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes region for Saturday. Weak low pressure will develop over the southern Plains on Saturday night and move east along the Ohio River on Sunday. This low will extend a cold front across the region on Sunday night and a residual trough will linger over the area for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid-level cloud deck remains entrenched across the southeast portion of the area, generally east of I-71 this afternoon. Otherwise, sunny conditions prevail across the western half of the area where temperatures have been quickly increasing into the low to mid 60s. Previous Discussion... The forecast area remains in the middle an area of high pressure to the southeast and a cold front to west. Ahead of this front, strong warm air advection continues over the region with a southwest low level jet of 50 to 60 knots, allowing for gusty winds mixing down to the surface. Blustery conditions will continue through this afternoon ahead of the cold front and temperatures will remain unseasonably warm with most locations reaching the 60s. Have high temperatures for today above much of the model guidance as many locations are in the upper 50s to near 60 this morning, exceeding most models, and expect things to bust on the warm side. The cold front will cross the area this afternoon and evening and winds will veer around to the west then northwest. Limited moisture ahead of this feature will allow for a dry passage across the region, although some low clouds may form towards evening. More seasonable temperatures will return behind the front tonight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The front washes out as it reaches the Ohio River on Saturday morning and much of the forecast area will remain under the influence of strong high pressure building over the Great Lakes region. While some models are depicting rain over the southern edges of the forecast area, believe that relatively dry synoptic conditions and the subsidence of the surface high and incoming weak upper ridge will keep rain out of the area. High temperatures will continue to be seasonable in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Increasing cloud cover and moisture advection will occur on Saturday night as southwesterly return flow increases in advance of an approaching upper trough digging across the Midwest. Showers will arrive front west to east late Saturday night into Sunday as overrunning develops. Rain will become more steady during the day on Sunday as a frontogenetic band develops across NW Ohio, expanding eastward as low pressure tracks northeast through the Ohio Valley to near Erie, PA by Sunday evening. Cannot rule out a mix of rain snow at the onset given a deep dry layer aloft that will lend to evaporational cooling but this will be short lived as warm air is lifted north ahead of the approaching low. High temperatures will be impacted by the track of the low but given the expanding rain field, most areas will be limited to the 40s with a few sites in the southeast reaching 50 degrees. The rain will linger across the east into Sunday night as the upper wave becomes negatively tilted with increasing deformation aloft. By Monday the upper trough axis will shift east to New England with deep moisture quickly pulling away to the east. Scattered lake effect rain/snow showers are possible as a secondary trough cross Lake Erie. Highs on Monday will be cool in the lower 40s and possibly a few sites limited to the upper 30s in NW PA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level ridge builds in quickly during the long term with a warming trend developing for midweek. Showers could return to NW Ohio as early as Tuesday as shortwave energy streams northeast out of the trough to our west. Better chances for rain arrive by Wednesday as low pressure approaches from the Mississippi Valley. At this time it looks like fairly good coverage of rain can be expected but there is spread among the long range models with the handling of the trough lifting out of the Plains. This will be the feature to watch for the Thanksgiving Day forecast which tentatively includes a chance of rain with mild temperatures on Day 7. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... VFR across the area this afternoon with VFR expected to persist through this evening. A cold front will pass south across the area this evening, though is not expected to bring any precipitation. Following the cold front, lower MVFR ceilings will arrive at CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI overnight and appear to persist through at least the late morning. This lower cloud deck is apparent in observations across Upper Michigan, with widespread ceilings between 1,000 and 2,000 feet. Can't rule out some lower IFR ceilings, especially at ERI with enhanced low-level moisture from the lake. Southwest winds continue to be gusty ahead of the cold front this afternoon, 20 to 25 knots. Winds will begin to decrease following sunset and shift towards the west, northwest, then north behind the front. Winds will generally be less than 10 knots across the TAF sites tonight through tomorrow. Outlook...Non-VFR possible Saturday night through Monday with rain and/or snow showers along the lakeshore and mainly rain showers elsewhere. && .MARINE... Southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots will continue on Lake Erie today before shifting to the northwest with the passage of a cold front tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for areas west of Avon through 1 PM and east of Avon through 7 PM. Given the southwest flow, the higher waves of 5 to 9 feet will be on the east end of the lake in the open waters with waves of 3 to 6 feet on the outer fringes of the nearshore waters. Winds will decrease behind the front tonight and veer to northeasterly on Saturday as high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes Region. East northeast winds will increase on Sunday as low pressure tracks northeast through the Ohio Valley towards the eastern Great Lakes. At this time it looks like winds will be 15 knots or less but could end up stronger based on the track of the low. As this system passes to the east, winds will back to the northwest at 15-20 knots and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed east of Vermilion. Conditions will improve for Tuesday as the next area of high pressure builds over the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Kahn/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...KEC