958 FXUS61 KRNK 170207 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 907 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system that crosses the Great Lakes tonight will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic area Tuesday. High pressure will cover the region Wednesday through Sunday, resulting in tranquil, dry weather. Temperatures will be a little warmer each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 905 PM EST Monday... Not much change in the forecast this evening. Temperatures and winds still on track under a clear sky this evening/overnight. Winds are now beginning to subside in most locations, with only the highest elevations still seeing windy conditions. Winds likely to pick up once again after sunrise tomorrow after a passage of a cold front diving in from the Ohio River Valley, ushering in a quick shot of colder air. Upslope snow showers will also increase for the western slopes in West Virginia and especially western Greenbrier County as the flow begins to turn northwest. Some flurries will be possible as far east as the I-81 corridor through midday. Left the snow totals along the western slopes of Greenbrier very similar to what was discussed earlier today. As of 110 PM EST Monday... Rather dry tonight with winds subsiding after sunset. Shortwave diving across the Ohio Valley late tonight with a cold front moving across will send another surge of winds along and behind the front, but appears best pressure rises and low level jet are not as strong as the previous wind issue we just had, so for now am not leaning toward any wind headlines. Best shortwave lift will be to our north, but upslope enhancement will allow for snow showers/some rain further east, with up to an inch or so of snow across western Greenbrier County Tuesday morning between 7am and noon. Could see some flurries as far east as the New River Valley and I-81 corridor north of Roanoke. Otherwise seasonal to just above seasonal lows tonight with 30s, with colder highs Tuesday in the 40s west, to 50s east. Forecast confidence is average on snowfall/precip chances but high on the rest of the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1230 PM EST Monday... Tuesday night will begin with gusty northwest winds and good cold air advection. Snow showers should taper to flurries across western Greenbrier County of West Virginia and eventually dissipate. Temperatures will plummet below freezing across the entire region on Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, a strong area of high pressure should build over the Mid Atlantic and persist through the remainder of this forecast period. Light winds and clear skies should allow for good radiational cooling during Wednesday night. Temperatures will begin to trend milder on Thursday when an upper level ridge establishes itself over the Southeast and the surface flow turns more southerly. Thursday night will still be chilly but not quite as cold compared to earlier in the week. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1245 PM EST Monday... High pressure should slowly drift offshore during Friday and Saturday, but its influence will keep the entire region dry through this time. With the upper level ridge remaining over the Southeast and good warm air advection from southerly flow at the surface, temperatures will push notably above normal well into the weekend. The models reveal a cold front crossing over the Ohio River Valley by Sunday, but the ECMWF and the GFS still keep the Appalachian Mountains free of any precipitation until late Sunday night into Monday morning. Most of the moisture will fail to cross over the Blue Ridge, so it is possible that the Piedmont could remain dry through Monday. The flow should turn back to the northwest and become gusty by the afternoon after the frontal passage. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 640 PM EST Monday... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period, except for upslope moisture behind the incoming cold front bringing MVFR ceilings to BLF and LWB by 14-18z Tuesday. The low level jet increases again tonight which will result in some wind shear early Tuesday morning, the winds pick up with the front after 12z, with gusts back in the 20-30kt range from the northwest. Winds should begin to diminish toward dusk. Above average confidence for wind, visibility and ceiling. Extended Aviation Discussion... Some minimal MVFR upslope clouds will remain for the most western areas (i.e. LWB/BLF) through Tuesday night, but will begin to see improvements early Wednesday morning back to all VFR. Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Saturday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...BMG/WP SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BMG/WP