018 
FXUS64 KFWD 161118 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
518 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The current short term forecast is on track and no changes were
needed. It is quite chilly across North and Central TX this
morning with pockets of frost and several sites at the "freezing"
mark. As an interesting tidbit, Waco has officially reached 32 
degrees, signifying the first freeze of the Fall 2020 season.
Today will warm quickly with highs int he 60s and 70s. 

Bain

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/

Colder conditions are anticipated through the morning hours as
light winds, dry air and clear skies will facilitate an excellent
radiational cooling event. Some areas west of I-35 as well as
sheltered/low-lying regions will see temperatures fall into the
low 30s. These areas will be most prone to pockets of frost and
I've retained this element in the weather grids.

The dry airmass will mean a quick rise in temperatures after
daybreak today. This combined with return flow, thanks to the 
eastward migrating surface high should allow for ample heating. 
Have followed the thinking of the previous forecast and kept 
temperatures a degree or two greater than the blended guidance 
given what should be a steep diurnal temperature curve. Highs in 
the upper 60s and low 70s for this afternoon appear reasonable. 

Tonight, we'll see another decent setup for ideal radiational
cooling and I've gone with values closer to that of CONSMOS which
paints widespread mid 30s across the area (except in the urban
canopy where lows may only bottom out in the low 40s). Pockets of
frost again appear possible and I'll include this in the worded
forecasts. Temperatures on Tuesday should moderate even further as
southerly winds transport warmer air northward. Widespread 70
degree weather is forecast with mostly sunny skies. 

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

The tranquil weather conditions will continue through the rest of
the work week as upper level ridging dominates throughout the
region. Above normal temperatures are expected each day as plenty
of sunshine and southerly winds drive daytime temperatures into
the upper 60s to 70s. A quick-moving shortwave will be traversing 
across the Central Plains on Thursday, leading to breezy 
southwesterly/southerly winds throughout the day. The warmest 
temperatures of the week are likely to occur on Thursday as highs 
climb into the mid to upper 70s, with a few 80s possible west of 
I-35. 

Friday and Saturday will continue with the quiet weather trend 
before a strong cold front barrels through North and Central Texas
Sunday. The 00Z global guidance has come into better agreement on
the timing, placing the cold front along the Red River as early 
as Sunday morning. Given plenty of moisture and strong forcing for
ascent, showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the 
front. At this time, the probability of severe thunderstorms looks
low, but this will continue to be monitored through the coming 
days.

Behind the front, much cooler temperatures are expected. If the
current timing of the front holds, many locations will experience
their high temperatures in the morning, with falling temperatures
through the day. Highs next Monday may struggle to make it out of
the 50s across North Texas, with lower to mid 60s across Central 
Texas. 

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---None major. VFR.


VFR will prevail through the entire TAF cycle with light southerly
winds returning after daybreak as surface high pressure slides
eastward. Winds are expected to remain below 10 knots. There may 
be a few passing high clouds, but in general CAVU is anticipated
at just about all terminals. 

Bain

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  42  72  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                69  37  73  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               65  41  70  41  71 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              69  33  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            68  35  71  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              70  43  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             67  38  72  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           70  41  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              70  37  74  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       70  36  72  41  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$